PGA picks: McIlroy gets back in winner's circle at Bay Hill

It's an emotional week on the PGA Tour as the players descend on Bay Hill for the first Arnold Palmer Invitational since the golf legend passed away.

A number of top players are in the field and the Florida layout always makes for some top drama on the weekend.

Here are the players that should fare well this week:

Favorite to watch (odds less than 25/1)

Rory McIlroy

Rory McIlroy didn't seem affected by the layoff he had due to a fractured rib earlier this season, returning with a seventh-place finish at the WGC-Mexico. While the 13/2 price is a bit steep, McIlroy is basically in contention every single time he plays, so it's worth it in this event. The Northern Irishman has played three events this season. finishing top 10 in all of them, and this will be the week he finishes the job with a win.

Odds to win: 13/2
Top-5 odds: 6/4

2nd tier (odds greater than 25/1)

Charl Schwartzel

The talented South African hasn't played the Arnold Palmer Invitational since 2011, but comes in hot after a sixth-place showing last week at the Valspar Championship. Schwartzel has shown his ability to place well in a strong field, and should be in contention at Bay Hill. Getting a player of his ability at 40/1 is a must-bet this week.

Odds to win: 40/1
Top-5 odds: 9/1

Long shot (odds greater than 40/1)

Francesco Molinari

The Italian has been a wizard at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in recent years, finishing inside the top 17 the last three starts he's made. Molinari's game is in fine form again this year coming into the event, as the 34-year-old has posted top-20 finishes in six of his seven starts. It's a good bet that Molinari will be in the mix on Sunday, and at 45/1 odds, that's certainly worth a couple bucks.

Odds to win: 45/1
Top-5 odds: 15/2

Super long shot (odds greater than 70/1)

Kevin Chappell

Chappell's game has been in rough shape this year, but a return to the friendly fairways of Bay Hill could be exactly what he needs. The 30-year-old finished second in last year's event, and showed throughout the week that he's more than comfortable on the Florida track. That result is certainly worth a wager at 80/1 this week.

Odds to win: 80/1
Top-5 odds: 16/1

Hit this bet, buy a car (odds greater than 100/1)

Jamie Lovemark

Jamie Lovemark's season has been a bit up-and-down with four top-30 finishes and four missed cuts. The 29-year-old is certainly familiar with the Bay Hill track as he posted an impressive sixth-place finish last season. Lovemark may not have the firepower to get the win, but spreading some money out over the 100/1 odds and 25/1 top-five odds is worth it.

Odds to win: 100/1
Top-5 odds: 25/1

Last week's picks

Henrik Stenson: 7th
Bill Haas: T-41
Graham DeLaet: T-22
Steve Stricker: MC
Scott Brown: MC

Season record (through 10 events)

Wins: 3
Top 5: 9

(Odds courtesy: Paddy Power)
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)