Ranking the 1st-round WNBA playoff matchups

The WNBA playoffs are upon us after a historic 2024 regular season that drew record crowds and saw enormous growth in viewership.

Will the New York Liberty finally capture their maiden championship? Can the Las Vegas Aces join the Houston Comets as the only teams to 3-peat? What will Caitlin Clark have in store for her playoff debut?

Anything can happen with a best-of-three format deciding the first-round matchups.

Here, we rank the four series from least compelling to must watch.

4. New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream

Season series: Liberty won 3-1

New York is arguably enjoying its best season in franchise history. The top-seeded Liberty tied last season's team record with 32 wins and registered 107 points per 100 possessions to lead the league in offensive efficiency. Between Sabrina Ionescu and Courtney Vandersloot, the club always has a smart decision-maker handling the rock. New York is also surrendering 4.1 fewer points per contest than a year ago when it reached the Finals for the first time in 21 years. Breanna Stewart's ability to switch onto guards on the perimeter and protect the rim has been instrumental in the Liberty's improvement, while Jonquel Jones' interior presence along with Betnijah Laney-Hamilton's physicality and suffocating on-ball pressure has been equally important.

It's safe to say the Dream will have their hands full. Rhyne Howard will need to find her mojo quick after ending the regular season on a shooting slump. The two-time All-Star shot just 28.1% from deep and 30.8% overall over her last five appearances. Meanwhile, the ageless Tina Charles has turned back the clock, averaging 17 points, 11.8 boards, and 2.7 assists since the Olympic break. Atlanta ranked last in both scoring and assists, but that was partly because of Jordin Canada's absence. The former No. 5 overall pick's ability to push the pace in transition and create out of the pick-and-roll has breathed new life into the offense. Canada's defense will also be vital in the Dream's hopes of an upset, as she has the quickness to stick with Ionescu and force turnovers.

3. Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury

Season series: Lynx won 3-1

Minnesota enters the postseason in red-hot form as winners of 14 of its last 16 games. Napheesa Collier has been the head of the snake on both ends, averaging 21 points on 52.8% shooting to go along with nine boards, three assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.4 blocks per contest over her last 14 appearances. She's got a solid supporting cast as well, with three other starters averaging at least 10 points. Kayla McBride leads the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league with a career-high 2.7 triples per game, and Myisha Hines-Allen has been a solid trade-deadline acquisition with her scoring, rebounding, and secondary playmaking off the bench.

On the flip side, Phoenix has struggled to find consistency in its first season under Nate Tibbetts. The Mercury have won no more than three consecutive games and rank eighth and ninth in offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively. Still, a team with this much star power shouldn't be dismissed. Brittney Griner remains one of the top centers and should have an advantage in the post against Alanna Smith. Kahleah Copper is an elite scorer and just three years removed from a Finals MVP. Lastly, you have the WNBA's all-time leading scorer Diana Taurasi, who might be playing with a bit more motivation as this is potentially her final playoffs.

2. Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever

Season series: Sun won 3-1

Connecticut gave Clark a true welcome-to-the-league moment in her pro debut, so it's only fitting that they're her first playoff opponent. But a lot has changed since that season-opening showdown in mid-May.

The Sun's defense has been their identity dating back to Curt Miller's time in charge. However, they added some much-needed spacing to their balanced attack with the acquisition of Marina Mabrey from the Chicago Sky. The sixth-year guard is averaging 14.9 points and shooting 42.4% from distance in a reserve role. DiJonai Carrington has also taken the next step in her first full campaign as a starter. The Baylor product has emerged as a lead candidate for the Most Improved Player award, providing shutdown defense on a nightly basis against the top guards, which in turn fuels her transition offense.

Clark has notably struggled against Connecticut, and Carrington was largely responsible for the phenom's 39% field-goal percentage and 25 turnovers in four regular-season meetings. It could very well be the same story in the postseason, but Clark is much better at handling the traps and physicality that initially troubled her. The Fever are also better prepared when defenses force Clark to become anything but a scorer. The first-year guard has no problems going into a pass-first mindset in transition or the half court. Clark has developed great pick-and-roll chemistry with Aliyah Boston, while Kelsey Mitchell has capitalized on the open looks created from the attention drawn by the Iowa product. Lexie Hull leads the WNBA in 3-point percentage and has made 58.3% of her attempts from downtown since entering the starting lineup last month. Slowing down the Fever's high-octane offense won't be easy, even for an elite Sun defense.

1. Las Vegas Aces vs. Seattle Storm

Season series: Aces won 3-1

It's a shame the Aces and Storm had to square off this early. With multiple MVP winners and All-WNBA players scattered between both teams, it's more than worthy of a Finals matchup.

Las Vegas is rounding into form after a slow start. A'ja Wilson has been rock-solid throughout the 2024 campaign, pacing her peers in scoring (26.9 points per game) and blocks (2.6) to go along with a new single-season league record for total points (1,021) and rebounds (451). The superstar's strong play has been crucial with Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young both experiencing a drop in efficiency from the previous year, and Chelsea Gray hasn't had the best season, either, as she missed the first 12 games with a foot injury. But the three-time WNBA champ has looked better as of late, posting 11.9 points, 5.7 assists, and two steals per contest across her last seven appearances.

Seattle bounced back from a difficult 2023 campaign in which the team registered its second-worst record in franchise history. The Storm's surge back up the standings has been aided by the free-agent signings of Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith, and the former's interior presence has complemented Jewell Loyd's perimeter scoring. Meanwhile, Diggins-Smith is among the league leaders in assists (6.4) and steals (1.7) in her first season back from maternity leave. The team also added Gabby Williams following her standout showing for France at the Olympics. The UConn product ended the regular season with five straight double-digit scoring performances, and her two-way versatility raises Seattle's ceiling. However, there are two factors that could work against the Storm. Their 3-point inefficiency has been a problem all season and may be difficult to overcome if the Aces continue to fill it up from beyond the arc. Injuries to Loyd and defensive anchor Ezi Magbegor loom large, too.