WNBA Finals preview: Mercury look to stop Aces from cementing dynasty

The Phoenix Mercury couldn't have imagined a better start to the post-Diana Taurasi era.

Phoenix knocked off the defending champion New York Liberty and top-seeded Minnesota Lynx to reach its first Finals in four years.

Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Aces are looking to cement themselves as a dynasty with a third title in four seasons.

Here's how the two sides stack up heading into Friday's series opener in Sin City.

Phoenix Mercury

How they got here

Record: 27-17 (4th in WNBA standings)
First Round: Mercury 2, Liberty 1
Semifinals: Mercury 3, Lynx 1

Featured player: Alyssa Thomas

Thomas has fit perfectly alongside the Mercury's 3-point threats and cutters. The 6-foot-2 point forward earned her sixth All-Star nod, finished fourth in Defensive Player of the Year voting, and was third in the MVP race this season. She also set a WNBA single-season record with eight triple-doubles, breaking her own mark from two years ago.

Thomas continues to lead the way in the playoffs, averaging 18.6 points, 9.1 assists, 8.4 boards, and two steals in Phoenix's run to the Finals. She's the only player in league history to top her team outright in points, rebounds, and assists in multiple series-clinching victories, per ESPN Insights. The Aces will have their hands full with Thomas' driving ability, court vision, and defensive versatility.

Biggest strength: Defense

The Mercury has taken its defensive play to another level in the postseason, holding opponents to a league-best 92.2 points per 100 possessions. They lead the WNBA in both opponent 3-point percentage (27.6%) and opponent free-throw attempts (13.6 per contest). Phoenix is also averaging 8.1 steals and 14 points off turnovers.

Nate Tibbetts' squad is finding success with its physicality, aggression, and switchability. The Mercury excel at limiting scoring opportunities in the paint and timing their double teams. Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Cloud tallied a combined 6.3 turnovers per contest in the Liberty's opening-round series against Phoenix. Lynx point guard Courtney Williams coughed up the ball seven times in a Game 2 semifinal loss versus the club.

X-factor: DeWanna Bonner

Bonner is having an up-and-down playoffs. She began the first round with back-to-back double-digit scoring games, only to tally 12 points combined over her next four appearances. But the 16-year veteran rose to the occasion in Game 4 of the semifinal round, dropping 11 points in the fourth quarter - including a pair of late threes - to help Phoenix rally past Minnesota. Bonner provided an offensive spark when she joined the Mercury's top-scoring second unit in July, and her proven track record in the postseason should benefit the trio of rookies in their rotation.

Reason for concern: Slow starts

Phoenix needed to dig itself out of some early holes in the previous round. The Lynx outscored the Mercury in the first quarter in three of the four matchups, including Game 2, when Phoenix trailed by 16 points at halftime and was down by as many as 20 before mounting a comeback to avoid a 0-2 series deficit. In Game 4, the Mercury fell behind 25-14 through the opening 10 minutes and didn't make a field goal until the midway point of the quarter. They won't be as fortunate if they continue to tempt fate in the Finals.

Las Vegas Aces

How they got here

Record: 30-14 (2nd in WNBA standings)
First Round: Aces 2, Storm 1
Semifinals: Aces 3, Fever 2

Featured player: A'ja Wilson

There's no player in the WNBA playing better than Wilson right now. The Aces superstar ended the regular season on a tear, averaging 25.1 points, 11.4 boards, 2.8 assists, 2.3 blocks, and 1.6 steals over her last 19 appearances en route to her record-setting fourth MVP award. She had nine 30-point performances during that span as the Aces went 18-1.

Nobody outside of Aliyah Boston has managed to provide any sort of resistance against Wilson during the postseason. The 29-year-old is punishing foes in the short roll, beating her counterparts off the bounce, and making contested fadeaways. She's come through for Las Vegas in the biggest moments, topping the 35-point mark in each series-clinching win. Wilson's defense has been equally impressive as she's recorded 5.4 stocks per contest.

The Aces went 3-0 against the Mercury this season with Wilson in the lineup as the All-Star center put up a dominating 25 points and 15.7 boards per game.

Biggest strength: Championship experience

Las Vegas is no stranger to the bright lights. It returns five players from its previous two championship squads, including Wilson, Chelsea Gray, and Jackie Young.

Wilson and Gray both have Finals MVP awards in their trophy cabinet. Meanwhile, Young is playing the best basketball of her career and was a key contributor in the Aces' most recent championship appearance, posting back-to-back games of at least 20 points, five rebounds, and four assists in their 2023 triumph over the Liberty. Jewell Loyd also has a pair of rings from her decade-long tenure with the Seattle Storm.

Las Vegas knows what it takes to reach the mountain top, and it's allowed the Aces to persevere through a 9-11 start to the campaign, a WNBA-record 53-point beating on their home floor, and two tight series deciders.

X-factor: Jewell Loyd

The Aces were betting on Loyd to have a bounce-back campaign when they acquired her in a three-team trade during the offseason. That hasn't come to fruition for the most part, as she's averaging the lowest amount of points (11.2) since her rookie year. However, she has shot the ball better since being moved to the bench midseason, making 40.9% of her threes across 19 appearances as a reserve. The playoffs have been a mixed bag for the six-time All-Star. Las Vegas could use Loyd's shot-making prowess to clear more space for Wilson to operate down low.

Reason for concern: Big Three's minutes

How much does the Aces' Big Three of Wilson, Young, and Gray have left in the tank? The trio is leading the WNBA in minutes played during the postseason and has collectively been on the court for 113 more minutes than the Mercury's troika of Thomas, Kahleah Copper, and Satou Sabally. That might loom large entering the first best-of-seven series in WNBA Finals history, especially after the league's longest regular season ever.