theScore Bet special: How will Verlander fare in return to Houston?
Justin Verlander only lasted 16 starts in New York before the Mets dealt him back to the Houston Astros at the trade deadline.
Verlander won two World Series - in 2017 and last year - and added two more Cy Young Awards to his resume with Houston before the Mets signed him to a two-year, $86.6-million contract this past offseason.
But the Mets' 2023 season hasn't gone according to plan, and the team with the highest payroll in the majors was forced to sell. They also traded Max Scherzer to Houston's AL West rival, the Texas Rangers.
Prior to the deadline, oddsmakers at theScore Bet gave Verlander odds of +800 - or an 11.1% chance - of being traded to Houston.
Now that he's landed back in H-Town, Verlander gives the Astros a better chance at winning back-to-back World Series titles.
| Astros to win | Odds before trade | Odds after trade |
|---|---|---|
| World Series | +800 | +650 |
| AL Pennant | +400 | +350 |
| AL West | -105 | -130 |
Verlander put together a 6-5 record and held a 3.15 ERA in 16 starts with the Mets, who sat six games below .500 and seven games out of a wild card on trade deadline day.
But how will Verlander fare in his second stint with Houston?
Oddsmakers at theScore Bet came up with a list of specials to predict how the remainder of the season will go for the 40-year-old.
| Verlander Wins After Aug. 1 in the 2023 Regular Season |
Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 5-plus Wins | -120 | 54.5% |
| 6-plus Wins | +190 | 34.5% |
| 7-plus Wins | +400 | 20% |
| 8-plus Wins | +900 | 10% |
| Verlander Earned Runs After Aug. 1 in the 2023 Regular Season |
Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| To Allow Under 24.5 Earned Runs | -120 | 54.5% |
| To Allow Under 22.5 Earned Runs | +115 | 46.5% |
| To Allow Under 20.5 Earned Runs | +190 | 34.5% |
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The Astros have 54 games remaining on their schedule prior to their game versus the Cleveland Guardians on Wednesday. Simple math would project Verlander to make roughly 10 starts with his new, yet former, team.
Five wins in 10 appearances is certainly feasible for Verlander now that he's on a team that holds a 61-47 record and is in the thick of a playoff race. It's likely the bare minimum Houston will expect from its new top-of-the-rotation starter.