Votto's Hall of Fame assessment, Skenes' innings, and 7 more observations

Starting Lineup is a biweekly collection of reporting, observations, and insights from the baseball beat, published every other week during the regular season.

Leading off …

There was no farewell tour, media blitz, or press conference.

He didn't need an ego boost while riding into the baseball sunset.

There was just Joey Votto standing in a parking lot in downtown Buffalo, filming a short video with the Blue Jays' Triple-A ballpark, Sahlen Field, behind him. He posted the nine-word, nine-second video to Instagram:

"That's it. I'm done. I'm officially retired from baseball," Votto said.

And just like that, one of the more remarkable MLB careers of the 21st century ended after 17 major-league seasons and 23 in professional baseball.

Votto's professional career began in 2002 when he was drafted in the second round out of a Toronto high school and reported to the Cincinnati Reds' Gulf Coast League team in Sarasota, Florida. It ended in his 23rd pro season with his hometown team's Triple-A affiliate. Votto's final few plate appearances occurred Tuesday in Buffalo. He went 0-for-3 with a run scored.

"I was washed. I was done probably last year at some point," Votto said on the "Dan Patrick Show" Friday. "But I am the one that has to make that decision. It wasn't until the other day that I didn't want a plate appearance. When the coach was like, 'Do you want this at-bat?' And I was like, 'I don't,' and I've never had that."

Some were surprised the Jays didn't call up Votto for the home series against the Reds this week, even though he was batting just .143 in 51 Triple-A plate appearances. If nothing else, seeing one of the greatest Canadian ballplayers wear a Jays jersey (along with the merchandise and ticket sales for the club) would've been emotional satisfaction during Toronto's lost season.

But Votto wanted to earn his way back to the majors. His body wouldn't allow it. He finishes as the rare star to play for only one MLB team.

And we now have closure on one of the most remarkable careers in recent history.

Only Hall of Famers Ferguson Jenkins (84.2) and Larry Walker (72.7) produced more career WAR than Votto (64.5) among Canadians, according to Baseball Reference. It's a steep drop to the next-ranking Canadian, Russell Martin (38.9).

There might be some debate over whether Votto deserves to join Jenkins and Walker in Cooperstown. He falls short of traditional benchmarks like 3,000 hits (2,135) and 500 home runs (356).

But I and other Hall voters believe Votto belongs.

In our Eras series earlier this year, we ranked Votto 17th on the list of the best 25 players of the 25 years from 1999-2023 - ahead of Derek Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki, and Paul Goldschmidt, among other greats.

Votto led the National League in on-base percentage seven times. The 2010 NL MVP had a career 145 wRC+, which ranks ninth this century. That means he was 45% better than the average MLB hitter for his career. His .409 on-base mark ranks seventh this century.

Votto rarely chased a pitch, but he usually made solid contact when he did.

One of my favorite Votto stats: During an April 2019 loss at Dodger Stadium, Votto popped out to Cody Bellinger at first base. It was the first time in his career - covering 6,289 plate appearances since his debut in 2007 - that he flew out to a first baseman.

Votto's blend of batting eye and bat control was truly rare.

He did things differently, and he thought about things differently. Before baseball was awash in data, Votto was already one of the more analytical players.

Consider what he told me a decade ago about working to get his pitch:

"It's like a boxer who is always trying to lead the guy into his straight. You have to manipulate him with your footwork. Same type of thing in baseball. You have to figure out a way to funnel (the pitcher) into your hot zone. That comes with patience and that comes with accepting or realizing there will be some error on their side.

"It's almost like as a hitter you have to be a counterpuncher. The best way to be a counterpuncher is just to sit and wait and absorb and then counter with whatever you think your strength is."

Votto did things his way. Few did them better.

2. A golden age of first basemen is ending

Albert Pujols, arguably the best hitter and player of the 21st century, retired after the 2022 campaign.

Future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera retired following last season.

Now Votto's gone.

Freddie Freeman, another great first baseman of this era, turns 35 next month. Paul Goldschmidt turns 37 on Sept. 10. While Freeman has shown few signs of slowing, Goldschmidt is a below-average hitter for the first time in his career (89 wRC+).

We ranked those five first basemen among the best 25 players in our Eras series, the richest non-pitcher position on the list.

But this era of great first basemen is coming to an end.

First basemen have combined this season for a 102 wRC+, one of the four weakest campaigns for the position since 1920.

Part of the decline is the loss of rare talents. But baseball is also a game that prioritizes defensive versatility over hulking sluggers.

Who will pick up the slugging torch?

3. Perhaps it's Guerrero

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Josh Naylor are the only primary first basemen with a wRC+ of 110 or better this season who will be younger than 30 next campaign. They also both happen to be free agents after the 2025 season. (Pete Alonso, who will be a free agent this winter, turns 30 in December.)

How will clubs value slugging corners?

It certainly won't hurt Guerrero's market if he shows he can play some third base - he's manned the position 69 innings this season while recording minus-1 defensive runs saved. Still, it's not a bad time to be an elite-hitting first baseman since there aren't many.

What's most important for Guerrero's free agency and the 2025 Jays is for his bat to continue to perform as it has in recent months. Then he might very well earn a $300-million contract regardless of position.

4. A mound revisit

For a piece earlier this summer about the art and science of constructing pitching mounds, I asked Cleveland Guardians head groundskeeper Brandon Koehnke how often MLB officials measure mound dimensions to ensure they're at the proper height and distance from the plate. He said perhaps once a year or even once every two years.

Pitchers told theScore that they can tell the difference in dimensions in some ballparks.

What pitchers are feeling isn't wrong, according to research shared this week by UC Santa Barbara physics student Johnny Nienstedt. Pitching mounds are slightly different in height from ballpark to ballpark.

While an inch or two difference might not seem consequential, no one regularly checks in to see if a team sculpted a higher or lower mound. Perhaps that should change.

5. Birdland blues

The early returns for the Baltimore Orioles, the most active contender at the trade deadline, aren't good.

Many questioned Trevor Rogers' addition at the time of the deal, and he was struggling so badly with his new club that the Orioles optioned him to Triple-A on Thursday.

Baltimore just added its top addition, Zach Eflin, to the IL with a sore shoulder.

In eight games for an already embattled bullpen, Gregory Soto owns a 12.71 ERA as an Oriole.

In addition to the performance and health failings, former Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd said he believes that too much change can be detrimental to the inner workings of a clubhouse.

Baltimore is 9-10 since the trade deadline and has fallen 1.5 games behind the New York Yankees in the American League East.

6. Skenes' red line

How much longer will Paul Skenes pitch this season?

If the young star can pitch through the remainder of the season, he could contend for not just Rookie of the Year but also the NL Cy Young. Among pitchers to have tossed at least 100 innings this season, Skenes is second in ERA (2.16).

But the Pirates are out of contention, and we know teams manage young arms with particular care in today's game.

Skenes has logged 104 innings at the major-league level and 27 1/3 in the minors thus far in 2024.

Last year, he threw 122 1/3 innings for LSU and 6 1/3 in pro ball.

Skenes is probably getting close to whatever Pittsburgh's innings limit is for him, especially since the club sits in last place in the NL Central (60-67). Teams are hesitant to increase a young pitcher's workload by more than 20-30 innings from the previous season.

I'd guess the Pirates will limit him to 150 total innings, but they've been vague about their plans.

"There is no immediate plan to shut him down," Pirates manager Derek Shelton told reporters Thursday. "There have never been any immediate plans to shut him down. How we monitor that, whether it's an innings limit or a workload limit per game, we'll be thoughtful about that."

If Pittsburgh were still in the postseason chase, it would face the prospect of the most controversial shutdown since Stephen Strasburg in 2012, when the ace was returning from Tommy John surgery.

The Washington Nationals were 85-53 following Strasburg's final start on Sept. 7. He finished with 159 1/3 innings on the season. Washington made the playoffs but lost a five-game division series.

Did it work for Strasburg? It's difficult to prove the success of preventative health measures, but the Nationals certainly diminished their chances of winning a World Series in 2012.

On one hand, Strasburg had a very good career and helped the club win the 2019 World Series.

On the other hand, he spent time on the IL - often considerable time - in nearly every season from 2015 through 2022.

Even if a club believes shutdowns have merit, maybe there's a better way.

7. An adjusted shutdown model

That there are discussions at all about Skenes' workload calls into question some level of team planning.

Given his performance in the majors, it seems ridiculous that Skenes threw any minor-league innings this season. It appears to have been an effort to suppress his service time more than to refine his skills.

Consider what Orioles hitting coach Cody Asche explained to theScore a few weeks ago:

"Organizations understand pitch quality way, way better," he said. "They have pitch-grade models, they know what quality stuff is. I think in years past, it was, 'He needs to prove it against Triple-A guys.' Today, if stuff is grading out as big-league quality, it is, 'Bring him up and see what he's got.'"

Skenes was ready on Opening Day this year. Everyone knew this. Heck, he was ready the day he signed after the draft.

If teams are adamant about enforcing an innings count for a top young arm or even some limited, final minor-league seasoning, why not start them pitching later in the season?

If a Skenes or Strasburg in 2012 started throwing any competitive innings in late May instead of the beginning of April, they'd be available for a full season and into October. If you're going to manipulate Skenes' service time, at least do it with a purpose that benefits everyone and not just the bottom line.

8. Rare company

FanGraphs cites seven different statistical projections on each player's page. Those projections have Aaron Judge finishing between 58 and 60 home runs.

Only Mark McGwire (1998, 1999) and Sammy Sosa (1998, 1999, 2001) have multiple seasons with 60 or more homers. Judge could join them, without any chemical help, in a much more difficult era in which to hit.

9. The Mariners shuffle the deck

The Mariners entered Friday at .500 and out of playoff position despite a starting rotation that ranks first in the majors in ERA (3.32) and second in fWAR.

Being in this position got manager Scott Servais and hitting coach Jarret DeHart fired this week. Typically, such moves are more scapegoating efforts than anything of substance - though the Phillies' removal of Joe Girardi for Rob Thomson lit a spark in 2022 that continues today. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto said the club requires a "new voice."

While that's perhaps true, they also need more bats.

The Mariners' issues are more likely tied to their hitting talent than anything. Seattle is batting an MLB-worst .216 with an MLB-high 27.7% strikeout rate.

The addition of Randy Arozarena (.224 average, one homer in 76 at-bats as a Mariner) hasn't helped.

If the fan base and ownership can be patient, Seattle has some excellent hitting prospects on the way. But the Mariners are facing a lost year of excellent pitching, which can be difficult to count on from season to season.

Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.