New Miracle Mets: Expensive, but full of fun and comebacks

Anyone who isn't a sports fan who found themselves on New York City's 7 train Tuesday afternoon was probably bewildered if not terrified.

When the subway line bound for Queens started its journey at Hudson Yards station in Manhattan and a prominent fast-food chain's purple, pear-shaped mascot bounded onto the car, all hell broke loose. Mets fans began jumping up and down in exuberant glee, mobbing the character and chanting its name: "Grim-ace! Grim-ace! Grim-ace!"

(McDonald's is taking full advantage of this marketing opportunity, as Grimace decals are also now adorned to trains.)

The fans were en route to Game 3 of the NLDS at Citi Field, where Grimace now enjoys its own purple seat. Some fans are beginning to visit the seat before games, like it's some sort of shrine to the improbable series of events that have the Mets playing deep into the postseason.

We can't explain everything that matters in the universe - baseball or otherwise - and it's difficult to explain how these once left for dead Mets will play in the NLCS, beginning Sunday in Southern California. New York advanced Wednesday on Francisco Lindor's series-clinching grand slam against the Phillies.

What we know for sure: the Mets were 28-37 before Grimace threw out the first pitch on June 12 at Citi Field, then went 61-38 to close out the campaign and sneak into the playoffs on the season's last day. Lindor hit .231 through June 11.

Grimace is the pivot point, certainly, but June 12 wasn't the actual low point.

To understand this improbable season seemingly steered by supernatural powers, we must understand the depths of the nadir from which these Mets rose.

On May 29, New York fell 11 games under .500, and during that 10-3 loss to the Dodgers, former Mets reliever Jorge López tossed his glove into the stands in frustration as he walked off the mound following a poor performance. Manager Carlos Mendoza was critical of López's action.

"I don't regret it," López said after the game. "I think I've been looking (like) the worst teammate probably in the whole f---ing MLB."

The Mets agreed: López was designated for assignment the following day.

That was the low point: 11 games under, an ugly loss, and a player tantrum.

FanGraphs had the Mets' playoff chances at 8.2% at that point, along with a minuscule 1.7% chance to reach the NLCS, and a 0.3% chance to win the World Series.

Still, further context is needed to understand the sour mood around the club.

This season's start followed a monumental flop in 2023 when the Mets finished 75-87 despite the game's top payroll: $343 million, nearly $70 million more than the second-ranked Yankees. It was such a poor season, the team traded veteran pitchers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer before the trade deadline - they were supposed to be their shortcuts to success. Manager Buck Showalter was fired after the season, with Mendoza becoming the club's fifth skipper in six seasons.

So, back in late May, the Mets again looked like another expensive failure following an offseason in which they didn't sign Shohei Ohtani or trade for Juan Soto, which added further fan disappointment.

While the rebound isn't exactly a Cinderella story - the Mets still own the game's No. 1 payroll - it's definitely an improbable story.

As hot as they were after June 12, they didn't secure their playoff berth until the last day of the season, a Monday doubleheader in Atlanta that was rescheduled because of Hurricane Helene. In a wild back-and-forth first game, a ninth-inning, two-run homer from Lindor - another clutch hit from the superstar shortstop - clinched their ticket.

After their relentless push to a wild-card berth, their postseason advancement odds were on life support again last week, on Oct. 3, when they trailed 2-0 in the ninth inning of Game 3 of the wild-card round against Milwaukee. The Mets had two runners on base, but were down to their final two outs against Devin Williams, the NL's best closer.

Here's the Oct. 4 cover of the New York Post, featuring Pete Alonso captured in mid-polar bear-like roar, bat still in hand, after smashing a most-improbable three-run, game- and series-winning home run off Williams, with the headline, "Miracle Mets":

The original Miracle Mets earned their moniker by beating the juggernaut 109-win Baltimore Orioles in the 1969 World Series. The 1969 season was the Mets' first winning campaign after seven years of almost nonstop losing: the club dropped 120 games in its maiden 1962 season, and 1968 established the high-water mark for wins with 73.

New York went 100-62 in 1969. The '69 Mets were never underwater like the 2024 Mets, who in many ways are more miraculous.

Today's Mets ranked second in the majors with 11 players in the top 200 highest win probability added performances by hitters in the regular season. (Win probability added measures changes in win probability from one plate appearance to the next, so it essentially measures clutch hits and often game-changing home runs.)

Lindor had four of those 11 performances, including his Sept. 30 homer against the Braves, which changed the game's win expectancy by 65 percentage points.

Wednesday's grand slam ranked as the eighth-biggest WPA change of this postseason (35%) through Wednesday's games; Alonso's homer off Williams ranks first at 64%.

No Met at this point should be bothered by any high-leverage, stressful moments.

"I love (my teammates) for believing in me. I really believe in every one of them. I believe that anybody at any given time can do something special," Lindor told reporters after Wednesday's clincher. "We have a bunch of really good baseball players that can do a lot of things right. And when you focus on little things, big things can happen."

While not all of billionaire owner Steve Cohen's moves worked - see last year's Scherzer and Verlander signings - the deal to trade for Lindor in 2020 and extend him has been a massive win for the club. It demonstrates the benefit of having a wealthy, committed owner, and that rostering star power is almost always necessary to advance in the postseason.

Lindor trails only three position players in fWAR during his Mets tenure: Aaron Judge, Soto, and Ohtani. Remarkably, Lindor hasn't been an All-Star since 2019. He posted a career-best 137 wRC+ this year and finished one steal shy of a 30-30 season.

But the Mets aren't relying on one star and are doing more than just stringing timely hits together. They've been an excellent team since late May.

They posted a plus-127 run differential over their final 110 games. The lineup is loaded with core veterans like Lindor, Alonso, and Brandon Nimmo, and they're enjoying the breakout of new power threat Mark Vientos, who smashed 27 homers to go along with a 133 wRC+ during the season. They also enjoyed the return of young power-hitting catcher Francisco Alvarez at midseason. In the end, the Mets finished sixth in the majors in home runs and seventh in total runs scored.

New York also deftly moved on after Verlander and Scherzer. Sean Manaea was brought in over the winter on a two-year, $28-million deal to address the rotation, following an uneven season with the Giants, and proceeded to have one of the best seasons of his career, transforming himself in recent offseasons at Driveline Baseball.

Manaea has a 2.25 ERA and 0.92 WHIP across 12 postseason innings, with his altered arm slot and slider-sinker-changeup mix giving opponents fits.

The club also signed former Yankees standout Luis Severino to a one-year, $13-million deal as he worked his way back from injury. It's been a successful reclamation project: Severino went 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA in the regular season and has thrown 12 competitive innings this fall.

They've also enjoyed unexpected performances from veterans David Peterson (121 innings, 2.90 ERA) and Jose Quintana (170 innings, 3.75 ERA), who've combined for 17 shutout innings this October.

Somehow, this has become a scrappy team with an underdog chip on its shoulder, despite its bloated $340-million payroll (which includes $62.1 million paid out to shed Verlander's and Scherzer's contracts last year). Still, remarkable as this season is to date, there remains work to be done to cement it as one that'll go down in Mets and MLB lore.

The 1969 Miracle Mets would've been forgotten if they didn't win the World Series. North American sports culture respects postseason winners; 100-win teams that fall short in the playoffs are lost to history.

Lindor understands the 2024 Mets require a little more magic.

"I want to win it all. I want to win it all," he repeated to reporters. "And then ours will be a team that will forever be remembered. This will be a team that comes (back to New York) every 10 years and eat for free everywhere they go. And I want to do that. I want to do that. But the job is not done."

Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.