Blue Jays kickstart offseason at winter meetings, but what's next?

The Toronto Blue Jays started their offseason business at the winter meetings by continuing to prioritize strong defensive play and speed over offensive thump.

General manager Ross Atkins acquired Gold Glove second baseman Andrés Giménez and reliever Nick Sandlin from the Cleveland Guardians for Spencer Horwitz. Giménez is one of the game's premier defensive players. The 26-year-old finished in the 100th percentile in Statcast's outs above average in 2024 and stole 30 bases in each of the past two seasons. He's a big upgrade at second base and gives the Blue Jays two elite defenders up the middle with Daulton Varsho at center field.

However, Giménez's contractual situation clouds the picture to an extent. He inked a seven-year extension after a 2022 All-Star campaign that has him on the books through the 2029 season. Giménez will make $10.5 million in 2025, $15.5 million in 2026, and then $23.5 million for the following three seasons.

His luxury-tax hit for those seasons is $19.3 million in average annual value, eating away a considerable amount of the club's limited payroll flexibility if it wishes to remain under the competitive balance tax. Acquiring Giménez will look a lot better if the Blue Jays are willing to blow by the first luxury-tax threshold ($241 million) to infuse power into a lineup that struggled to score and hit home runs in 2024.

Fans were disappointed to see Horwitz depart after he emerged as the club's second-best hitter last season behind Guerrero. Horwitz posted a 127 wRC+ and showed a good eye at the plate in his first taste of major-league action. But there are legitimate questions about where Horwitz can settle in defensively. He didn't have a clear pathway to playing time after things didn't work out at second base.

Horwitz, 27, also didn't showcase much power as he progressed through the minors. Turning an older prospect with some question marks into a proven contributor like Giménez and a decent reliever in Sandlin isn't a bad move - assuming more impactful transactions follow.

Atkins made another move that didn't make as many headlines, reuniting with veteran reliever Yimi García on a two-year, $15-million contract after trading him to Seattle at last season's trade deadline.

García instantly becomes the best or second-best reliever for a beleaguered Blue Jays bullpen that was among the league's worst in 2024. Bringing him back for $7.5 million per season is a nice value move for a reliever who appears to be getting better as he gets older. García's K/9 has increased from 8.56 in 2022, to 10.77 in 2023, to 11.31 last campaign.

However, what comes next for the Blue Jays will define the 2025 season and beyond. They have a bit more financial wiggle room before they reach the first CBT threshold. Their projected 40-man payroll sits at $228 million, according to Roster Resource. The club finished just below that threshold in 2024 with a payroll of $238 million, the highest mark in franchise history. But the Blue Jays still have a decent amount of work to do if they want to substantially improve a club that finished in the basement of the AL East for the first time since 2013.

Toronto is reportedly a serious suitor for 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes, who seems likely to threaten $250 million-plus after Max Fried secured an eight-year, $218-million contract from the New York Yankees. It seems odd at first glance to commit that level of term and money to a rotation that still looks to be in decent shape. However, the Blue Jays aren't overflowing with options should injuries strike, and pitchers like Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt are likely past their respective peaks.

Burnes has seen his strikeout rate decline over the past few seasons but can still pitch deep into games and induce softer contact. Adding Burnes to go with a plus defender like Giménez would reinforce the Blue Jays' emphasis on run prevention. But that would still leave their run creation lacking. There's a strong argument to be made that allocating the resources it'd take to sign Burnes into at least one offensive player would be a more prudent course of action.

The top priority should remain signing Guerrero long term. He's likely to increase his asking price after Juan Soto signed a record $765-million megadeal with the Mets. It's fair to wonder if Guerrero is content to see if he can strike it rich on the open market with free agency tantalizingly close. The Blue Jays can't let that happen. If it's clear an agreement isn't on the horizon, they should trade him at the deadline. Losing him for nothing more than a compensatory draft pick is unacceptable.

Beyond Guerrero, there's still a glaring need for a middle-of-the-order bat with power. Former Orioles slugger Anthony Santander continues to look like an ideal fit, but it's uncertain if Toronto is willing to pay the price it'll take to land him. The Blue Jays have shown interest in Joc Pederson in the past, and it wouldn't be surprising if they did so again. There are still options out there that'll improve the club's ability to score runs in 2025. Now, Atkins and the Blue Jays have to strike and make something happen.

Signing Santander to provide some power from a corner outfield spot would be a great place to start. It's hard to see the Blue Jays getting into the Alex Bregman market, but they should still improve at third base. Ernie Clement might be better served as a utility player rather than the everyday option at the hot corner.

Unfortunately, the third base market isn't overflowing with talent. Yoán Moncada represents the kind of low-risk, high-reward target that could pay dividends. He's struggled to stay on the field and be productive over the past few years. A one-year deal for a player who's shown the ability to be a plus defender at third base while also flashing some power and speed is the type of move that fits the way the Blue Jays' front office likes to do business.

Once run creation has been addressed, the Blue Jays can refocus on filling out the rest of the pitching staff. Canadian Nick Pivetta makes a lot of sense in lieu of Burnes. Pivetta is owed draft-pick compensation after the Red Sox extended him a qualifying offer, but a pitcher who's posted a K/9 of 11.54 and 10.63 over the past two seasons is worth it. He'd be an excellent addition to the rotation and would allow the Blue Jays to move Yariel Rodríguez to the bullpen.

Then, the bullpen. Bringing back García and acquiring Sandlin was a good start. However, there's still work to be done, particularly at the back end. Former Texas Rangers right-hander José Leclerc has experience in the closer's role and owns a career 11.81 K/9. Walks are a concern with Leclerc, but he'd bring some juice to the Blue Jays' bullpen. A core of Leclerc, García, Sandlin, Chad Green, and Erik Swanson isn't a bad starting point. Another addition closer to the start of spring training is also a realistic possibility as relievers look to latch on to a team as the season creeps closer.

Toronto is on the board in the offseason, but there's still plenty of work to be done if the club wants to avoid repeating a disappointing 2024 season. The pressure's never been higher on Atkins and the front office to deliver. Time will tell if they can pull it off.