Grading the flurry of 1B moves as MLB's offseason heats up

The first-base market has kicked into high gear with a handful of big names changing clubs via trade and free agency over the last 48 hours. Here, we break down the notable moves and hand out grades for each team.

Christian Walker ➡️ Astros

Grade: A

Walker has developed into one of the game's best all-around first basemen over the past few seasons. The 10-year veteran has won three consecutive Gold Gloves and belted 95 home runs since 2022. Walker is entering his age-34 campaign, but signing him for three years at $20 million annually is excellent value for a player who's shown no signs of slowing down.

Walker's 42% career pull rate should bode well for him at Houston's Daikin Park, with the Crawford Boxes just 315 feet away in left field.

Houston Astros fans might be a little squeamish seeing the club sign another aging first baseman after the disastrous signing of José Abreu - still owed $19.5 million in 2025 - a couple of years ago. The major difference between Walker and Abreu is there were already some clear signs of decline in Abreu's offensive profile. Walker doesn't have the same red flags coming off another productive campaign. The move looks like a big win for the Astros and a nice payday for a player who transformed himself into a powerful middle-of-the-order bat before hitting free agency for the first time.

Owner Jim Crane isn't one to hand out long-term contracts, and Walker's three-year term fits that model. Parting with draft picks and international bonus pool money is consistent with Crane's message that Houston will always try to contend as long as he owns the team. The Astros appear to be moving forward with Walker at first base and Isaac Paredes at third after he was acquired from the Cubs in the Kyle Tucker trade. The door appears to be all but closed on longtime third baseman Alex Bregman returning to the only franchise he's ever known. Time will tell if the moves pay the kind of dividends that Crane and the Astros are looking for.

Paul Goldschmidt ➡️ Yankees

Grade: C

Goldschmidt's productivity has fallen off dramatically since winning NL MVP with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2022. The 37-year-old posted a .981 OPS that campaign before dropping to an .810 OPS in 2023 and finally a .716 mark last season. Goldschmidt's 98 OPS+ was below average for the first time in his illustrious 14-year career.

Goldschmidt's still capable of making excellent contact, finishing the 2024 season in the 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate. However, his chase, whiff, and walk rates are all trending in a very concerning direction. Goldschmidt finished last season in the 38th percentile in walk rate after placing in the 89th and 92nd percentiles the previous two years.

One reason for optimism is Goldschmidt's improvement in the second half of last season. He struggled to a .664 OPS in the first half before rebounding with a .799 OPS, nine home runs, 19 doubles, and 28 RBIs over the campaign's final 62 games. Goldschmidt will be worth his $12.5-million salary if he can produce at that level in 2025. If he can't, at least it's only one year and won't do that much to hurt New York's roster and financial flexibility.

The New York Yankees were reportedly interested in signing Walker but didn't want to part with the draft-pick compensation required as a result of the qualifying offer, according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale. Considering Walker only landed a three-year, $60-million deal, not parting with the pick and pivoting to an older, less productive player seems odd for a team clearly trying to win a World Series.

Josh Naylor ➡️ Diamondbacks

Grade: B+

Naylor will slide right into the void left by Walker's departure. The 27-year-old slugger drove in 100 runs for the first time in his career in 2024 with the Cleveland Guardians. Naylor's 9.2% walk rate was the best of his career, and he continues to do an excellent job avoiding strikeouts and making contact. That's a very valuable skill set for a power hitter. Naylor should receive ample opportunities to drive in runs with Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte setting the table in front of him atop the Arizona Diamondbacks' batting order.

Naylor is only under contract for one more season and is projected to earn $12 million in arbitration, according to MLB Trade Rumors. Even if it's only a one-year partnership, the price paid to acquire Naylor wasn't prohibitive and will be well worth it if he anchors the middle of the lineup and helps the D-Backs return to the postseason after missing out in 2024.

Carlos Santana ➡️ Guardians

Grade: C+ (Santana plus Naylor trade return)

The Guardians quickly signed Santana to a one-year, $12-million contract after shipping Naylor to Arizona. Santana is set to return for his third tour of duty in Cleveland. Although the 38-year-old isn't quite the offensive force he was in his prime, he's still a reasonable bet to post above league-average numbers.

Santana registered a 109 OPS+ with 23 home runs and 71 RBIs across 150 games for the Minnesota Twins last season. Those numbers aren't quite what Naylor produced in 2024, but getting that in addition to a strong season from young slugger Kyle Manzardo will essentially offset what Naylor would've been expected to do at the plate.

The Guardians really seem to value the competitive balance pick they received in the Naylor trade. For a team historically in the bottom third of the league in payroll, the possibility of finding a contributor with the 72nd overall pick in the draft is likely more appealing than ponying up to pay Naylor for past performance or losing him for nothing in free agency.

Cecconi does a good job at limiting walks and avoiding hard contact. Other than that, most of his underlying metrics aren't particularly encouraging. The Guardians have a well-documented history of getting the most out of their pitchers, so there's a chance they unlock something that allows Cecconi to be a more productive big-league arm.

Nathaniel Lowe ➡️ Nationals

Grade: B+

Lowe's place on the Rangers fell into some question after Texas made a trade to acquire Jake Burger from the Marlins. Burger's capable of playing first base, leaving Texas with a bit of a roster crunch. Lowe is under team control for an additional two seasons and will slot right into the middle of a young Nationals lineup.

Lowe's power production has fallen off after hitting 27 home runs in 2022, but he's still been worth nearly three wins in each of the last two seasons with an OBP around .360. His ability to be a better-than-league-average hitter will afford him many chances to drive in runs behind the Nationals' young stars like CJ Abrams and James Wood.

Acquiring Lowe for reliever Robert Garcia is a reasonable price to pay for a Nationals team looking to take another step forward in 2025. Garcia's peripheral numbers were better than his 4.22 ERA last season indicated, but Washington should be able to replace him for a relatively low cost either internally or by dipping into the free-agent market.

What does it all mean for Pete Alonso?

Alonso is the last big ticket available on the first-base market. The slugger is second to only Aaron Judge in home runs since making his MLB debut in 2019. Strangely, the market for Alonso seems to be dragging. The New York Mets are on the record having interest in reuniting with the fan favorite. Alonso doesn't provide much defensive value at first base but has hit at least 30 home runs in every 162-game season during his six-year career. Teams are always looking for an infusion of power, and Alonso certainly brings that. A reunion with the Mets makes the most sense for both parties, but Alonso could get squeezed given the dwindling number of teams needing a first baseman and Walker's comparable contract.

Aside from the Mets, the Seattle Mariners seem like the most logical fit for Alonso. Seattle couldn't score many runs or hit for power during a disappointing 2024 season that culminated in missing the playoffs. Unfortunately, there are a couple things working against the Mariners. Firstly, hitting at T-Mobile Park is not conducive to putting up big numbers. Secondly, handing out lucrative, long-term contracts to free agents has never been something the Mariners have seemed all that comfortable doing. Outside of Seattle, there aren't many teams with a glaring hole at first base.