Fantasy baseball lessons from the League of Death

A year ago, I sat at the No. 13 draft position in a conference room at The Mirage in Las Vegas for my first live Main Event draft.

I was the small fish assigned randomly to a shark tank dubbed "The League of Death" due to the abundance of fantasy legends it held.

The league included more than $2 million in National Fantasy Baseball Championship career earnings, five of the NFBC's top 30 money winners, and three overall winners of the Main Event - the NFBC's flagship contest.

Entry fee: $1,800. The overall prize? $200,000 and fantasy baseball immortality.

Last year, the League of Death produced a fourth overall Main Event winner: Clark Olson, who sat two chairs down from me in the No. 15 spot during our draft.

I didn't have much success, though. I finished eighth out of 15 teams in the league and 385th out of 855 teams overall.

As we enter MLB's peak fantasy draft weekend, I interviewed the League of Death's top three finishers to learn what they took away from our experience and from 2024 fantasy baseball as a whole.

Lesson No. 1: Run toward fear

One of the best players in NFBC history, Olson was enshrined as the 10th member of the NFBC Hall of Fame last fall.

It was no surprise to many NFBC veterans that after such consistent performance - 10 Main Event league titles - Olson finally secured a No. 1 overall finish.

The University of Washington computer science professor couldn't have had a better start to the draft, but he had to accept a lot of risk to execute it.

The day before our draft last March, news broke of the betting scandal involving Shohei Ohtani's interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara. There was fear among fantasy managers that Ohtani might be involved, and it could have been risky to select him with an early pick.

But with the last pick in the first round, Olson still took Ohtani. With his following pick in the snake-draft format - the first pick of the second round - he selected José Ramírez.

Shawn Childs, another NFBC Hall of Famer, created a guideline for rotisserie baseball managers: Target 75 combined homers and 75 steals from the first three hitters you draft.

How good was Olson's start? Ohtani and Ramírez combined for 93 homers and 100 steals.

"I know there was some skepticism," Olson said, "but Ohtani is a huge star and unless there was real proof he was betting on baseball … I thought it was unlikely."

Olson reminded the fantasy baseball world of investor Warren Buffett's famous axiom: "Be greedy when others are fearful."

Lesson No. 2: Free yourself from FOMO

While some excellent players, like past champion Phil Dussault, create their own projection systems, Olson's valuations largely come from selecting existing projection systems and aggregating their outlooks.

Olson possesses the skills to create his own forecasts, but he doubts it would be a worthwhile use of his time. He believes the existing public ones are very good, so his available research hours are better spent elsewhere.

When the draft arrives, he stays true to his spreadsheet. He generally doesn't chase players filled with spring helium or get attached to favorites.

While the Ohtani-Ramírez start was one of the best possible outcomes, drafts are often won in the middle rounds. This time was no different: Olson snagged Josh Naylor, Anthony Santander, Willy Adames, and Hunter Greene with his ninth- through 12th-round picks. All four players had career years.

Despite largely staying loyal to his spreadsheet values, Olson's nimble; he doesn't always take the top player on his board.

"One thing I do at each pick is ask, 'Who is kind of unique at that spot?'" Olson said. "Whether it's a particular position, or stat, or one guy that is left that does something really well that won't be available later."

Lesson No. 3: Simplify

Lindy Hinkelman is another Yoda-like Hall of Famer. He's the only player to win two Main Event titles in NFBC history.

The retired pig farmer lives 100 yards from where he grew up in Greencreek, Idaho, (population 211) listening to Dodgers games on AM radio as a kid.

Farming might not seem to have much crossover with fantasy baseball, but it involves a surprising amount of accounting, from taking inventory of supplies to tracking the growth rates and production of offspring from various gene pools. Every piglet is a prospect.

Hinkelman had the No. 1 draft position in our league last year and took the consensus top player available, Ronald Acuña Jr., who was coming off a season of 41 homers and 73 steals.

Hinkelman was able to grind out a second-place finish in the league even though Acuña's season ended in May. Drafting Tarik Skubal and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in Rounds 2 and 3 didn't hurt.

His chief lesson: Don't dig too far into the weeds. "You can paralyze yourself" by absorbing too much data, he said.

For hitters, Hinkelman combines runs and RBIs and then divides them by at bats.

"That's my big go-to," Hinkelman said. "The better hitters are always up there, 0.3 runs (per at bat)." He does something similar for home runs and RBIs.

Hinkelman said he evaluates pitchers using K-BB%, swinging-strike rates, and ERA estimators.

"Just the basic stuff," he said. "I don't get too carried away with all the new stuff and the new abbreviations. I don't even know what they mean."

And while many fantasy managers stare at their laptop screens, Hinkelman drafts from a handwritten list.

Keep it simple.

Lesson No. 4: Show restraint

James Tomony, who finished third in our league, is an excellent player who won the Main Event title in 2020.

The Madison, Wisconsin, psychologist points out that no one wins the season on draft day.

"Not only do you have to crush the draft, but you have to kick ass on the waiver wire to win an overall," Tomony said.

The NFBC Main Event format doesn't allow trades between teams. Instead, there's an auction for free agents every Sunday night. Managers have $1,000 in fake money over the course of the season to offer free-agent players.

Blake Snell was dropped in just two of the 57 Main Event individual leagues last year after his early struggles. Our league was one of them, and if Olson's roster had a weakness, it was starting pitching.

Sure, he was fortunate - but he was also in a position to take advantage. Olson had the highest remaining free-agent budget at the time, which allowed him to make the winning offer for Snell.

"I think (Olson) was first overall, but the one area he needed shoring up was saves and starting pitching," Tomony recalled. "I was the runner-up bid at $239 or $240. At the time I was No. 1 in our league in strikeouts. I didn't realize how low (Snell's) WHIP would be. I didn't have as huge a need."

Olson was wise to wait for the right target. Restraint is often a virtue.

Lesson No. 5: Look out for high-level trends

All three League of Death members I spoke with agreed on one major recent shift: Speed remains available later in drafts and on the waiver wire because of MLB rule changes that have increased steals.

Olson was able to target the best hitters available in the middle rounds and then add more speed through waiver-wire pickups like Marlins shortstop Xavier Edwards.

It's important to notice when these macro-level changes occur and figure out how to take advantage.

While speed is more plentiful, hitters who produce home runs and batting average are becoming more rare.

Lesson No. 6: Evolve

Even as a top player, Olson admits he's trying to break some bad habits.

"I write the same note to myself every year. In all caps this year: 'When are you going to learn to avoid injured players?'" he said.

Another written reminder to himself from last year: "Spend less on (free-agent budget) rookie call-ups."

Hinkelman is considering placing more weight on catchers and closers after generally devaluing them.

On top of wrestling with personal biases and weaknesses, Tomony notes that fantasy managers also have to adjust to rule changes, macro trends, positional strengths, or even the state of the baseball.

"Part of the takeaway (from 2024) is this is a challenging hobby, and it's very humbling," Tomony said. "You're trying to put together giant jigsaw puzzles and there are moving parts every year."

Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.