UFC 303 predictions: Will Pereira repeat history vs. Prochazka?

Ahead of Saturday's UFC 303 in Las Vegas, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the main-card bouts.

Light heavyweight championship

Alex Pereira (10-2)
vs.
Jiri Prochazka (30-4-1)

For the second time in seven months, two of the most violent and chaotic fighters in mixed martial arts will square off in the Octagon with 205-pound gold on the line.

Alex Pereira knocked out Jiri Prochazka to capture the vacant belt at UFC 295 last November, and now he'll try to make it 2-0 against the Czech fighter in his second title defense.

Though Pereira walked away with his hand raised last time, Prochazka is still very much a live underdog. The first matchup was competitive right up until the finish. Prochazka attacked Pereira from all angles and beat him to the punch more often than not, while Pereira's leg kicks proved to be a dangerous and impactful weapon.

However, there's one aspect of Pereira's game that gives him an edge in any matchup and makes him tough to pick against: his power. The former GLORY Kickboxing champion is not only one of the most elite strikers in the UFC at present, but he's also one of the biggest knockout artists. If Pereira lands on you flush, it's almost surely lights out. But that's the thing: He doesn't even need to land flush.

There's a strong argument to be made that Prochazka was having more success on the feet than Pereira throughout the first seven or eight minutes of their bout at UFC 295. But it didn't matter. Nor did it matter in the first Israel Adesanya fight. Thanks to a combination of skill and unreal knockout capability, Pereira finds a way to win.

Prochazka has some killer knockouts under his belt as well, but he leaves himself open on the feet way too much to beat Pereira consistently. So Prochazka needs to change his game plan at least a bit if he wants to win. He went for a takedown in the first round, and, after a bit of resistance, he secured it. He also landed a few ground-and-pound shots that certainly got Pereira's attention. If he can do that with more frequency this time, Prochazka has a real shot.

But Prochazka has already said he doesn't plan to adjust his game plan much at all. At the end of the day, Prochazka and his warrior spirit like to stand and bang - understandably so. But doing so against Pereira may be a recipe for disaster.

The pick: Pereira, third-round knockout

Lightweight bout

Brian Ortega (16-3, 1 NC)
vs.
Diego Lopes (24-6)

Highly touted up-and-comer Diego Lopes is looking to crack into the top five in what is the biggest fight of his career against Brian Ortega.

As soon as the matchup was announced as part of the revamped UFC 303 card, the general consensus in the MMA community seemed to be that Ortega-Lopes could steal the show. Both men are well-rounded but excel on the ground.

Sometimes, that means we're in for a kickboxing match - and that could very well be the case Saturday. As impressive as Lopes has been lately, I find myself leaning toward Ortega as the much more proven featherweight contender.

Ortega has been there with the best of the best, from Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway to Chan Sung Jung and Frankie Edgar. Ortega showed in his most recent bout - a third-round submission of Yair Rodriguez at UFC Mexico City in February - that he's still dangerous and a top contender.

Lopes, on the other hand, has beaten Sodiq Yusuff, Pat Sabatini, and Gavin Tucker - a nice winning streak indeed - but Ortega is a massive step up in competition. Despite oddsmakers giving Lopes a lot of respect, my gut is telling me this is going to be too much, too soon for the Brazilian.

The pick: Ortega, unanimous decision

Welterweight bout

Ian Machado Garry (14-0)
vs.
Michael Page (22-2)

Rising welterweight Ian Machado Garry taking on former Bellator star Michael "Venom" Page could be a striking fan's delight.

Page has been known as one of the best strikers in MMA for years. He uses a karate stance a la Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson when he steps into the cage. But the 26-year-old Garry is sneakily good on the feet and should be able to hang with him.

I'm expecting a very competitive fight, and although it might not be a back-and-forth barn burner, it'll be high-level and technical. I'm leaning toward Garry, but don't be surprised if Page comes through as the underdog in his second UFC appearance.

The pick: Garry, split decision

Other main-card predictions: Anthony Smith def. Roman Dolidze by decision; Mayra Bueno Silva def. Macy Chiasson by decision