Is Gradey Dick making a star leap?
What a difference a year makes.
Last November, the Toronto Raptors sent Gradey Dick to the G League. The then-19-year-old rookie looked like a deer in headlights in limited early-season action. It was painfully clear Dick needed to add muscle and strength while getting up to speed with the NBA game.
There's obviously still room to grow for the now 20-year-old sophomore, as evidenced by his late turnovers in Monday's loss to the Denver Nuggets and his foul trouble in Wednesday's loss to the Sacramento Kings. But through two weeks of the season, Dick looks like one of the NBA's most improved players.
Though Dick looked more the part of an NBA player in the second half of last season, this kind of year-to-year jump was inconceivable. Dick now has the league's third-best odds to win Most Improved Player, according to theScore Bet. He didn't even have the third-shortest odds on his own team entering the season. (Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and RJ Barrett were all seen as more likely.)
The raw numbers, although quite impressive, don't begin to describe Dick's astonishing early-season run. Only 19 sophomores over the last 58 years have matched Dick's combination of usage and shooting efficiency, according to Stathead. Only seven have done so while being qualified 3-point shooters.
You might argue two weeks is too small a sample to compare Dick to what sophomores like Steph Curry did over a full campaign. Fair enough. Well, here's a list of sophomores since 1982 who've averaged at least 21 points per game on 60% true shooting through the first eight games of a season:
Even if you include Dick's stinker in Sacramento, his true shooting percentage would still rank 12th among the 50 sophomores (since 1982-83) who've averaged 20 points over the first nine games of a season. You can find him just ahead of Zion Williamson and Karl-Anthony Towns on that list. Could Dick merely be enjoying a random hot streak? I suppose, but history suggests players this young don't do what he's doing without becoming All-Stars.
That Dick is doing this at all is worth praise, but it's doubly impressive when you consider he's been a focal point of opposing defenses thanks to various Raptors injuries and a dearth of offensive talent around him. He's not feasting on a barrage of open jumpers. He's scoring efficiently with virtually no space to operate or margin for error. He's also shown rapid improvement in attacking closeouts, putting the ball on the floor, drawing fouls, and finishing inside the arc. There's still plenty of room for improvement at the rim, but that'll come with added strength.
Dick's job will get easier (and his usage will decrease) when Barnes and Quickley return. More importantly, Dick's nonstop movement, shooting prowess, and the defensive attention it all commands will make life easier for Barnes, the team's offensive hub. Only Curry is using more possessions per game coming off of screens than Dick, and only three players have been more efficient off screens, according to NBA.com.
These reps on a shorthanded Raptors team are invaluable, and Dick is passing the test with flying colors. Beyond the scoring, he has shown a feel for the game beyond his years. As his body continues to fill out and he's less liable to get bullied, the 6-foot-6 Kansas product should serve as a passable defender and good rebounder.
Put it all together and Dick already had the makings of a solid rotation player, if not a longtime starter. What he's shown thus far as a sophomore is the stuff of a budding star. That's the kind of leap that can transform a rebuild.
Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead Raptors and NBA reporter.