2015-16 NBA Season Preview: Houston Rockets

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Houston Rockets

2014-15

Offseason Roundup

• Re-signed Patrick Beverley (4/$25M)
• Re-signed K.J. McDaniels (3/$10M)
• Re-signed Corey Brewer (3/$23.4M)
• Re-signed Jason Terry (1/$1.5M)

Projected Starting 5

• PG Ty Lawson
• SG James Harden
• SF Trevor Ariza
• PF Terrence Jones
• C Dwight Howard

MVP

For all the talk of how Stephen Curry's shooting ability makes him a real-life cheat code, it's James Harden who has broken NBA defenses with his seemingly computer-programmed offensive repertoire.

Harden has essentially rewritten the book on how to score efficiently in the modern age, despite high usage, and the results are absolutely mesmerizing for those who are analytically inclined.

Scoring in high volume when you're shooting in high volume is one thing. Scoring efficiently when you're dominating the ball, and using as many possessions as Harden does, is the true mark of a great offensive player - particularly when you factor in how many open (corner) looks Harden also generates with his driving-and-kicking.

Consider that in the last 36 years, only 40 times has a player managed to produce 1.15 points per possession and post a True Shooting Percentage of at least .600 in a season, despite a Usage of at least 27 percent. Harden owns three of those 40 seasons, and is one of only six players in history to do it at least three times.

His defense, while markedly improved last season, will continue to produce embarrassing Vines from time to time. When you score at the all-time rate Harden does, however, even one-sided value can be game-changing. Just ask the 56-win Rockets team that was outscored by nearly three points per 100 possessions with their MVP on the bench.

Breakout Player

A healthy K.J. McDaniels - with a long-term deal finally secured - could burst onto the national scene given a full season with a contending team, but let's dig a little deeper and go with sophomore big man Clint Capela as the Rockets' breakout candidate.

After logging only 90 minutes in 12 regular season appearances, the 21-year-old Swiss center made the most of a surprising postseason opportunity last spring. Capela can finish above and around the rim, is already a capable pick-and-roll finisher, and projects as an excellent rebounder, collecting more than 22 percent of available boards in his limited NBA minutes.

He's also quick enough to hang with smaller players on the defensive end, and should give the Rockets a little bit of everything as Dwight Howard's full-time backup this season.

Season expectations

Like fellow Western Conference contenders, it's tough to pinpoint a reasonable expectation for the Rockets.

On one hand, they've added Ty Lawson since coming off of a 56-win season and Conference Finals appearance, they're led by an MVP candidate, and should be getting a healthier Howard back.

On the other hand, they still reside out West, and so as talented as the Rockets may be, they could win 55-plus games again and still end up with a first-round opponent that could very well win the championship themselves.

Houston could make its first Finals appearance in 21 years if things break right, but they could also be sent packing in April without necessarily under-achieving. Such is the nature of the wild, wild, West.