Conference tournament previews: Are favorites Duke, Houston worth picking?

The Big Dance earns all the attention, but true college basketball fans know the madness starts with the conference tournaments. Many mid-major tourneys are underway or have already wrapped up, meaning some programs have punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. We already explored which bubble teams are favored to make March Madness and how many programs to expect from each conference here.

The four major conferences begin their tournaments this week. Find out who will cut down the nets and earn automatic bids from each major conference.

SEC Tournament odds

Auburn and Florida project to be No. 1 seeds when the bracket gets revealed Sunday. Nothing could happen in Nashville this week that would change that.

After knocking off Auburn on the road last Saturday, Alabama deserves similar recognition as a championship contender. The Crimson Tide have gone through lulls while playing a brutal schedule over the past month, but they also went on a seven-game win streak beginning at the end of January.

Alabama's last seven games have been against ranked opponents, so the team is no stranger to facing elite competition on a short turnaround. However, its kryptonite is its porous defense, which has allowed over 90 points to its opponent in four of its last seven games. But the Tide have the SEC's best scoring offense, with five players averaging double figures. The offense, which takes and makes the most threes in the conference, is prolific enough to carry Alabama to a championship.

Pick: Alabama +375

Big 10 Tournament odds

Let's get this out of the way: I'm a Maryland alum. But there's nothing biased about picking one of the country's hottest teams to win the Big Ten Tournament. This analysis is from my head, not my heart.

Maryland has won 11 of its last 13 games, and its two losses were by a combined six points. The Terps have the best starting five in the conference but lack bench production. That could hurt Maryland when it has to earn three wins in three days, but its starters rarely show any signs of exhaustion.

While many college units are one-dimensional, the Terps aren't. The program has an elite offense with a balanced scoring attack and a top-10 defense in the country, according to KenPom. Maryland wins defensive battles that end in the 60s or shootouts in the 80s. Few squads in the conference - or country - can say the same. It's the only Big Ten team in the top three in both points per game and opponent points per game.

Michigan State is the worthy favorite as the regular-season champion and the winner of seven straight entering the postseason. It took a half-court heave at the buzzer for the Spartans to defeat Maryland two weeks ago. If they meet in the finals, you'll be glad you took the Terps at this price.

Pick: Maryland +450

Big 12 Tournament odds

Houston has won 10 straight games going into the Big 12 Tournament and picked up just one loss in a conference expected to send at least eight teams to the NCAA tourney. Despite the Cougars' dominance, there's no value in betting a squad to win three games in three days at even money.

Iowa State was considered one of the nation's best programs before finishing 6-6 over its final 12 games. But the record doesn't tell the whole story. The Cyclones dealt with various injuries to their top players during that stretch, including Curtis Jones, Keshon Gilbert, and Milan Momcilovic. However, Iowa State should enter the Big 12 Tournament healthy.

The Cyclones have the nation's sixth-best defense, per KenPom. Before the injury bug plagued its conference schedule, Iowa State had one of the conference's most efficient offenses.

Houston will likely coast to victory, but it's always worth banking on a semi-long shot in March.

Pick: Iowa State +550

ACC Tournament odds

Duke dominated the ACC all season en route to a 19-1 conference mark. The Blue Devils didn't just defeat opponents; they annihilated them. They finished conference play with a plus-434 point differential, the largest by a power conference team in over 60 years. Duke's lone conference loss was a road defeat to Clemson on Feb. 8.

It's hard to imagine a scenario where Duke doesn't roll through the ACC Tournament, especially with Clemson and Louisville - the only other NCAA tourney locks from the conference - on the other side of the bracket. Duke is understandably priced at an extremely short number, which isn't worth touching. Although the Blue Devils will likely win, let's try to find value in another squad.

Clemson is the obvious choice because it proved it could beat Duke, but Louisville has been one of the nation's hottest teams over the last month.

The Cardinals have won nine straight, with their last loss coming Feb. 1. They also defeated Clemson - a team they'd likely face in the tournament semis - in January. Duke beat Louisville on Dec. 8, but the Cardinals have improved dramatically over the last few months.

Pat Kelsey took over a program that combined for five ACC wins over the previous two seasons. Louisville won 18 conference games this campaign and is certain to make the NCAA Tournament. But first, the Cardinals have to compete for a conference championship.

Pick: Louisville +500

Big East Tournament odds

Let's target a bid-stealer to win the Big East. Villanova's only chance of making the NCAA Tournament - and head coach Kyle Neptune's only hope of keeping his job - is if it wins the Big East Tournament.

While the Wildcats have some brutal losses to weak opponents, they've shown they have the firepower to defeat the conference's best teams. Villanova has wins over St. John's, Marquette, and UConn and close losses to Creighton. It has the talent to win four games in four days, and it's on the opposite side of the bracket from St. John's.

Villanova has a top-20 offensive rating on KenPom, but its defense held it back throughout the season. Eric Dixon, who leads the nation in scoring, will be the best player in every matchup. The Wildcats will play like they have nothing to lose, which could be scary for the rest of the conference.

Pick: Villanova +1200

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.