If we didn't already know to tread lightly in bowl season, Friday's games were a reminder. Despite a season full of data points, many bowl games come down to which team is more interested. While we thought Toledo would care more than Middle Tennessee, the opposite was true, particularly in the fourth quarter. The Blue Raiders opened +9 and closed +10.5, yet won outright.
While our CLV loser got bowl season off to an alarming start, Saturday's 3-2 result put us back where we started, minus the juice.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Kent State vs. Wyoming (-3, 59)
Line history
Wyoming opened as a -4.5 favorite, but Kent State has taken enough money to bring that down to -3. The total has gone up from 57 to 59.
On the field
Kent State has been popular with bettors in its last two games, which were both critical for the team's season-long goals. The Golden Flashes earned a dramatic overtime win against Miami (OH) to reach the MAC championship, only to fall to Northern Illinois in Detroit.
These are the highs and lows that Kent State's style generates. Dustin Crum leads a fast-paced offense, but the Golden Flashes don't play much defense (ranked 117th in SP+), and they give away field position on special teams.
Wyoming started the season 4-0, including two wins over bowl-bound MAC teams. Since then, the Cowboys have been inconsistent in their own league, winning just two games, though one came against Mountain West champion Utah State.
Pick: Pass. For pools, use Wyoming -2.5 or better, Kent State +3 or better
Frisco Bowl: UTSA vs. San Diego State (-3, 49)
Line history
UTSA moved from -2.5 favorite to underdog, as San Diego State is now favored by 3. The total has come down from 50 to 49.
On the field
Sincere McCormick opted out for UTSA, but if the star running back's absence is the only reason this line has flipped 5.5 points and switched favorites, that's an overreaction.
Frank Harris can hand the ball to hungry runners who can shine in a high-octane Roadrunners ground game. He might also do damage through the air, even though San Diego State's defense is 12th in the SP+ ratings.
The Aztecs' best player is their punter, so they would've been interesting underdogs with an edge in the game's less exciting elements. Even though they're now favorites, they have a decisive disadvantage at quarterback. I'll take the points between two teams I have evenly rated.
Pick: UTSA +2.5
Armed Forces Bowl: Missouri vs. Army (-4, 57)
Line history
Army spent just enough time on opening line Sunday at -3 to be a suitable pick. The line has since risen above football's key number despite the Black Knights' loss to archrival Navy. The total has come down from 60 to 57.
On the field
Missouri's run defense is as bad as it gets for a Power 5 team and is unbecoming of an SEC squad. Bets on Army are based on the premise that it'll be able to run on the Tigers. We have numerous historical examples of academies being more interested in mid-tier bowl games, which can result in a blowout if the opponent doesn't feel like defending the triple option for 60 minutes.
Army's defense has issues too. Don't forget: This team gave up 70 points to Wake Forest. However, Missouri doesn't have a quarterback nearly as good as Sam Hartman - in fact, the Tigers are having an open competition given incumbent Connor Bazelak's struggles.
I'm sticking with my Army -3 bet from the open, but the more I look at this matchup, the more I think both teams could score via the big play. With the total dropping, it's now an option for a bet.
Pick: Army -4 / Over 57
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
