CFB rivalry week betting preview: Can Ohio State get revenge?

The expanded 12-team College Football Playoff has created chaos and provided more meaning to late-season games. There's much to sort out over the next two weeks and many consequential games this weekend. Here, we zero in on three intriguing matchups in the final week of the regular season.

Michigan @ No. 2 Ohio State (-21, O/U 42.5)

Michigan's poor record diminishes the intrigue this matchup has provided over the last few seasons. However, it's still one of the sport's biggest rivalries. Ohio State is seeking revenge after the Wolverines won the last three matchups.

Case for Michigan

• The 6-5 Wolverines will treat Saturday like the biggest game of their season. There's nothing more important than beating Ohio State.
• A win won't catapult Michigan from a lowly bowl game into the playoff, but it'd hurt the Buckeyes' resume.
• The Wolverines' offense showed some life last week, hanging 50 points on Northwestern thanks to a balanced offense.

Case for Ohio State

• Ohio State should be motivated to take advantage of Michigan during a down season after three consecutive years of embarrassment.
• The Buckeyes are remarkably more talented than the Wolverines on both sides for the first time in a while.
• Ohio State has the Big Ten's second-best scoring offense and best scoring defense, while Michigan is toward the bottom of the conference in both categories.

Key trends

• Ryan Day is 1-3 straight up against Michigan.
• Ohio State is 6-5 ATS and Michigan is 4-7 ATS.
• The Buckeyes are 4-3 ATS at home.
• The Wolverines are 1-2 ATS on the road.
• Ohio State's spread has received 57% of the bets and 65% of the handle at theScore Bet and ESPN Bet.
• Bettors are hammering the over with more than 90% of the handle and bets on the over.

Pick: Ohio State -21

Ohio State is out for revenge after the last few seasons, and the program finally has the upper hand over its rivals with a significantly better roster. The Buckeyes' frustrations over the last few years should come out against Michigan in a resounding home win.

No. 15 South Carolina @ No. 12 Clemson (-2.5, O/U 49.5)

The winner of South Carolina and Clemson has a (slight) chance to earn an at-large CFP bid after last weekend's chaos.

Case for South Carolina

• South Carolina fans are clamoring for more playoff consideration after a 5-3 SEC campaign. A win over one of the best ACC teams on the road would help their cause.
• The Gamecocks' strength is their defensive line, which has multiple NFL prospects. They wreck opposing offensive lines and allow the SEC's third-fewest rushing yards per game.
• Clemson runs the football frequently, so South Carolina will succeed if it limits the Tigers' rushing attack.

Case for Clemson

• As previously noted, Clemson's effectiveness in the ground game will decide this contest. The Tigers lead the ACC in rushing yards per game (195).
• Clemson averages 469 yards per game, the second most in the ACC.

Key trends

• South Carolina is 8-3 ATS and 5-1 in its last six.
• Clemson is 5-6 ATS and 1-4 in its last five.
• The Gamecocks are 4-0 ATS on the road, while the Tigers are 3-3 ATS at home.
• Over 70% of the bets and the handle are on the Gamecocks to keep it within the number.

Pick: South Carolina +2.5

South Carolina is a tough, physical team that's been through the gauntlet of an SEC schedule. That should help the Gamecocks in their interstate rivalry against a group that's played an easy ACC schedule. South Carolina's defensive line will limit Clemson's run game, leading to a low-scoring win.

No. 3 Texas @ No. 20 Texas A&M (-6, O/U 48.5)

This game would've had more meaning if Auburn hadn't upset Texas A&M last weekend. Nonetheless, Texas A&M can still make the SEC championship and have a chance at the playoff if it upsets Texas.

Case for Texas

• The Longhorns will be driven to make a statement with a victory over a good opponent this weekend. Texas doesn't own a quality win thanks to an easy SEC schedule.
• The Longhorns have a top-three scoring offense and defense in the SEC and a roster full of future NFL players.
• Their defense is particularly great at forcing turnovers, leading the conference in interceptions.

Case for Texas A&M

• Texas A&M's explosive rushing attack averages the SEC's second-most rushing yards. Texas' defensive strength is stopping the pass, meaning the Aggies could gain momentum on the ground.
• Texas A&M should be extra motivated off a loss with its season on the line.

Key trends

• Texas A&M is 3-8 ATS despite a solid record straight up.
• Texas is 6-5 ATS but 1-4 in its last five games. It's 2-2 ATS on the road.
• Texas A&M is 2-5 ATS at home.
• The over hit in five of Texas A&M's last six games, but the under hit in six of Texas' last seven games.
• Yet bettors are still riding with the over as 90% of the bets are on the game to go over.
• Sharp bettors and public bettors are split: 67% of the bets are on Texas to cover, but 85% of the handle is on Texas A&M to cover.

Pick: Texas -6

Texas A&M's defense has been disastrous. Texas has enough offensive weapons to exploit it. The Aggies have lost their last two games to power conference schools, including a 44-20 loss to South Carolina. This is Texas' chance to punch its ticket to the SEC title game with a quality win.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.