Debate Team: Are 80 RBIs Too Many for Tulowitzki?
Each week, two of theScore's fantasy experts argue over an enticing topic in debate form. This week, Josh Wegman and Andrew Potter will take either the over or the under on some shocking early season story lines:
Troy Tulowitzki RBIs: O/U 80.5
Stats as of April 28: .184/.308/.355, 4 HR, 10 RBIs, 7 R
Josh Wegman: Yes, Tulowitzki is 31 now and yes, he's not hitting in Colorado anymore, but the guy has flat out raked in his career. His career OPS on the road is .804. It's taking longer than expected for him to adjust to a new city, a new team and a new league, but he will come around. Now is the perfect time to buy low on an elite offensive SS in fantasy.
The fact that Tulo is already on pace for over 60 RBIs despite hitting below .200 shows how good a spot he's in. The three hitters in front of him - Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion - all had an OBP above .370 last season. Tulowitzki is already heating up, hitting .257/.395/.457 in his last 10 games. Once he finds his stroke, the RBIs will follow.
Andrew Potter: You're burying the lede here. We both know that the greatest factor impacting Tulowitzki's end-of-season counting stats isn't his home ballpark, league or teammates. Injuries have train-wrecked some of his finest years and there's little reason to think that's no longer a concern.
Tulowitzki has played 130-plus games in just three of his nine big league seasons since becoming a full-time player in 2007. He has averaged just 98 games per season since 2012, and even though he played 128 games in 2015, he still only managed 70 RBIs. Tulo's prime is in the rearview; taking the under of 80.5 RBIs seems like a no-brainer with his injury history.
Chris Carter AVG: O/U .240
Stats as of April 28: .297/.368/.672, 5 HR, 15 RBIs, 12 R
Andrew Potter: There are two factors that give Carter a chance to have a career year in batting average, even surpassing .240. First, he moved to a home ballpark with a greater positive impact on hit totals than Houston's Minute Maid Park.
Second, there are some positive indicators of change in Carter's approach. He's swinging at a career-low 39.5 percent of pitches but making contact on a career-high 68.6 percent. It's apparent that Carter is waiting on pitches he can drive, meaning he's making less soft contact and inducing fewer easy outs. As a result, he is hitting himself onto first at an unprecedented rate. He won't finish close to .300, but he'll easily surpass .240 if he keeps this up.
Josh Wegman: The fact that we're debating whether a guy with a career .220 batting average will hit over .240 is a joke. Carter can surely provide fantasy value thanks to his home run power, but don't be thinking that he all-of-a-sudden at age 29 figured out how to make contact more consistently.
Carter's current batting average is vastly inflated by a .341 BABIP. Expect this to come down considering the league average is .300 and his career rate is .277. The guy still goes up to the plate hacking with a bat that may as well have been made with Swiss cheese. At least that would explain all the holes in his swing. Sell high.
Gio Gonzalez ERA: O/U 3.50
Stats as of April 28: 1-0, 1.42 ERA, 0.895 WHIP, 19 IP, 20 Ks
Josh Wegman: Gonzalez was perhaps the unluckiest pitcher in all of baseball last season. His MLB-high .341 BABIP against led to an augmented, yet still respectable, 3.79 ERA. If he pitches like he did last season with a near-league average BABIP, he'll certainly have an ERA below 3.50.
Gonzalez's career ERA is 3.58, which includes his disastrous first two seasons where he recorded a 6.24 ERA. Excluding those early years, his ERA sits at 3.28. He's allowing a hard-hit percentage of just 25.5 percent of balls that have been put in play, which is impressive considering the league average sits around 30. Gonzalez could possibly win 15+ games backed by a strong Washington offense; hang on to him.
Andrew Potter: Since Gonzalez has walked 10 percent of batters he has faced in his career, it's unlikely that his current 5.3 percent walk rate will hold. With more free passes issued, Gonzalez will find himself working with more runners in scoring position, which will lead to more opportunities for his opponents to rough him up.
The good news is that Gonzalez will get a ton of run support from the Nationals' bats, and he should continue to strikeout close to a batter per inning. With solid counting stats, he will be a solid rotation arm in standard fantasy leagues, even if his ERA is closer to 4.00 than 3.00 by the end of the season. Take the over; if you can sell high to another owner who believes this sub-3.00 ERA is sustainable, make that move.