NBA postseason betting trends: Trust LeBron, top seeds in early rounds

The NBA regular season is behind us, and while the postseason doesn't officially start until Saturday, it's never too early to dive into trends that can help bettors know what to expect in the upcoming series.

Here are a few key playoff trends to consider this weekend and beyond:

Don't get cute with lower seeds

As much as we all love spending a little to win a lot, that hasn't been a fruitful strategy in the NBA since ... ever. A team has won it all as a No. 4 seed or worse only once since the 1976 merger, with No. 1 seeds winning in 29 of those 44 seasons. In fact, the 2020 Heat were the fourth-lowest seed (5) to even reach the Finals since '76 and the lowest in more than 20 years.

Many of those clubs don't even make it out of the first round: Higher seeds have won 75.6% of first-round series since the merger, which jumps to 86.9% when excluding 4 vs. 5 matchups. That's predictably been good news for betting favorites, which have won 36 of 40 first-round series in the last five postseasons.

That isn't to say an upset can't happen - No. 8 seeds have advanced twice in the last 10 years - but you shouldn't bet on it without compelling odds.

History favors LeBron, Lakers

By now, you're surely aware LeBron James has reached the Finals in each of his last nine postseason appearances, winning his fourth championship in that span with last year's title run. LeBron's overall dominance bodes well for the Lakers if the team makes this year's field.

In that 10-year stretch, LeBron's teams have won 68.8% of their games with a 103-82-4 record against the spread (55.7%). The clubs also covered 60.3% of matchups when favored and claimed 31 of those 36 playoff series outright. Word to the wise: Don't bet against the 36-year-old in the playoffs, even with the trend of top seeds looming against him.

LeBron's still got to fight for a spot in this week's play-in games. If he does, he'll have more history on his side - seven of the last eight defending champions won their first-round series behind a combined 28-4 record, with only the 2014-15 Spurs losing to the Clippers in a seven-game classic.

Early wins are paramount

For all of the prophecies that you'll see leading up to Saturday's contests - including here! - you can throw many of them out the window once the actual games start. That's because the most important data point in the NBA postseason is easily the Game 1 winner.

Teams that win the first game of the series advance to the next round 78.6% of the time, which bumps up to 80.2% in the first round. The winner of Game 1 has also taken a 2-0 lead in Round 1 more than 63% of the time in the last 19 years, which is essentially a death knell for the losing side - sides down 0-2 have won just 27 times in 426 tries (6.3%).

That doesn't mean every Game 1 result is revealing. Since 2002, underdogs that win the opening round's first game are just 8-31 in Game 2 with an 18-21 ATS record. That said, if a team grabs an early series lead, it's worth revisiting the series odds for the winner. It just might be worth paying the price.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.