Grading Oilers' defensemen ahead of 2021-22 season
Goalies | Defensemen | Forwards
Despite having two of the best players on the planet, the Edmonton Oilers have failed to build a true contending team over the last several years. Connor McDavid is set to begin his seventh NHL season and has just one playoff series win to his name.
With a number of big offseason moves to try to improve the team, it's starting to look like a make-or-break year. In this series, we'll examine the club's goalies, blue line, and forward group.
This edition focuses on the defensemen.
2021-22 projected depth chart
| LD | RD |
|---|---|
| Darnell Nurse | Tyson Barrie |
| Duncan Keith | Cody Ceci |
| Kris Russell | Evan Bouchard |
| Slater Koekkoek |
2020-21 stats
xGF% = expected goals share at five-on-five
| Player | GP | G | A | ATOI | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Nurse | 56 | 16 | 20 | 25:38 | 51.1 |
| Tyson Barrie | 56 | 8 | 40 | 21:24 | 48.2 |
| Duncan Keith | 54 | 4 | 11 | 23:25 | 42.5 |
| Cody Ceci | 53 | 4 | 13 | 18:31 | 48.9 |
| Kris Russell | 35 | 0 | 9 | 18:24 | 45.3 |
| Evan Bouchard | 14 | 2 | 3 | 14:50 | 47.9 |
| Slater Koekkoek | 18 | 1 | 0 | 13:10 | 45.9 |
The good
The Oilers should have no issues producing offense from the back end.
Nurse took major strides in his development last season, finding a new level offensively while becoming the team's undisputed No. 1 workhorse defenseman. He was rewarded with an eight-year, $74-million extension this offseason.
Barrie proved to be an excellent fit with the Oilers last campaign as a free-agent acquisition. He added a different dimension to Edmonton's power play and led all NHL blue-liners with 48 points. The Oilers re-signed him to a three-year deal worth $4.5 million per season.
It appears Bouchard will be an NHL regular this campaign. The 2018 10th overall pick has loads of potential, specifically at the offensive end of the ice.
The Oilers also have plenty of other promising young blue-liners coming through the pipeline, including Philip Broberg and Dmitri Samorukov.
The bad
None of Edmonton's defensemen are quite good at, well, playing defense.
Even Nurse, who has the size and physical capabilities to be a shutdown defender, has plenty of room for improvement in his own end. Among the 207 NHL blue-liners to log at least 300 minutes at five-on-five last season, Nurse's 2.74 expected goals against per 60 minutes was the 20th worst.
His projected partner, Barrie, has significant defensive limitations. It's why he didn't receive a single Norris Trophy vote last campaign despite leading all D-men in points.
The offseason acquisitions of Keith and Ceci don't inspire much confidence, either.
Keith is 38, but he has the mileage of someone far older given all his deep playoff runs with the Chicago Blackhawks. His foot speed has declined in recent years, causing him to struggle defending off the rush. General manager Ken Holland's willingness to take on the final two years of his contract ($5.54 million per season) was one of the offseason's biggest head-scratchers.
Ceci, meanwhile, has proven throughout his career to be a complete liability unless he's playing sheltered, third-pairing minutes. His four-year deal worth $3.25 million annually seems like an overpay on both money and term.
Bouchard is just 21, so he'll need the sheltered third-pairing minutes, which is understandable. Pairing him with a veteran in Russell makes sense, but the 34-year-old has his own physical deficiencies.
The biggest question arising from this group is who's going to draw the tough assignments. It appears it'll be Keith/Ceci to start the season, with Nurse/Barrie or perhaps Nurse/Russell taking on some of the burden as well.
Regardless, whichever combination head coach Dave Tippett opts for will be overmatched against top competition. Edmonton will struggle to hold leads this season as a result, especially with question marks between the pipes.
The grade
Among teams in pursuit of the Stanley Cup this season, the Oilers have, quite frankly, one of the worst blue lines.
Adam Larsson's steadying presence will be a big loss. Oscar Klefbom's continued unavailability due to injury also hurts.
But Holland didn't do himself any favors, either. Perhaps losing Larsson was unavoidable. But bringing in Keith and Ceci was unnecessary. As was trading away Ethan Bear, a promising homegrown defender.
Yes, the market for free-agent defensemen was crazy, but there were still ways around it. The Winnipeg Jets, for example, improved their blue line by giving up a total of two second-round picks and a third-rounder for a pair of solid top-four defensemen in Brenden Dillon and Nate Schmidt.
Dillon, Schmidt, and Bear (combined $11.9 million) would've cost the Oilers less money salary-cap wise than Keith, Ceci, and Barrie ($13.3 million).
Barring any major in-season additions or miraculous internal development, this group will give up tons of scoring chances and prevent the Oilers from reaching the ceiling created by the presence of two generational superstars in McDavid and Draisaitl.
Grade: D
(Analytics source: Evolving-Hockey)