NFL Week 16 lines that make you go hmmm...

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Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmm...” in Week 16.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5, 41)

This game hasn’t budged much since it’s inception. I’m a little surprised even though the number was expected to be high considering the circumstances. I was thinking more on the 14-plus area and not afraid to push the button higher.

Baltimore has its future in its own hands and two wins in the last couple of weeks assures the club of slipping ahead of Buffalo for the final wild card berth. My feeling is that the Ravens are going to get business done quickly and not fool around with a Colts team that has lost five games in a row. Indianapolis has scored 13, 7, 10, 16 and 17 points in those five losses and the way that Baltimore has scored the past three games (27, 38 and 44 points), the white flags may be out early.

With this kind of spread, we’re definitely thinking Baltimore wins this game and in its last five wins, the scoring margin has averaged over 22 points. With more than enough incentive riding in this one, anything short of two touchdowns seems like a bargain for all of you who like laying the heavy wood.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers (+4 .5, 42)

This game opened at -5.5 and quickly dropped a full point to the current line. Personally, I had this either 6.5 or 7.

No doubt about it, the Niners are looking good with wins in their last three games and four of five overall. But now they are playing one of the NFL’s hottest teams. Jacksonville represents a whole different level of competition which may prove to ground the high-flying San Francisco gold rush.

The Jaguars are starting to click on offense scoring 45, 30 and 30 points their last three games and covering a four-spot doesn’t seem so impossible. The track should be fast at game time and the Jaguars are suited to capitalize on their momentum. Though San Francisco on the surface seems to be the hot play (as witnessed by the early action) Jacksonville has more incentive to win and position itself accordingly in the playoffs.

If the line continues to fall, naturally the better the value for Jaguar backers. But I see this line going back up by kick-off so you might just want to press the button and get your ticket before the weekend starts.

Oakland Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 47)

I’m surprised this game is even up right now. At least not until the Minnesota result is known. I made this a minimum of 10 believing the Raiders will be out of contention and Philly knows it needs the win long before this game gets underway.

This line has no where to go but up and grabbing the best number would be right now as fast as you can before the surge gets this closer to my number. Oakland will have no incentive to play especially if the conditions are cold and snowy. With Minnesota’s win on Saturday, the Eagles will need to polish off the Raiders to keep their first-place standing heading into the final week.

There is no value at any level with the Raiders here. Oakland’s offense has been winding down while the Eagles’ scoring hasn’t been hurt with Nick Foles in at quarterback the past two weeks. As the marquee match-up on national television, the Eagles should be primed to make a great showing before they get their bye in the first round of the playoffs two weeks from now.

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Peter Korner is a long-time Las Vegas oddsmaker and analyst, working at the Las Vegas Sports Consultants and operating his own odds service, The Sports Club. Find out more about Pete and his storied career in the sports betting industry here.