Thursday Night Football best bets: 3 for the money in Vikings-Eagles

We can blame the Lions for fumbling right before what would have been a first-half field goal, but we can't blame them for running out the clock in an upset victory. Detroit's team total fell three points short, and we split the player props in last week's attempt to show us the money.

In the season's second Thursday nighter, we're going "Two for the Money," like the 2005 sports-gambling movie in which Matthew McConaughey and Al Pacino go toe-to-toe, spouting now-antiquated betting systems in the days of 900 numbers and tout services selling lies and other nonsense. It's not good, but it is reliably entertaining - like Kirk Cousins against quality teams in prime time.

'Certainty in an uncertain world'

The Eagles started the 2022 season on the road and, after taking a big lead, held on to win. In Week 2, they were at home for a Monday night game against the Vikings and beat them soundly. Using that reasoning to like Philadelphia would be legitimate, but, instead, we'll look at how that game was won and what's happened in the year since.

The Vikings won their next seven games and went 12-3 the rest of the way, beating bad teams and backup quarterbacks while convincing much of the betting public that they were good. However, they lost four of their last five games against the spread, including an outright loss at home in the playoffs. Months later, the market still hasn't caught up to appropriately downgrade the Vikings. That's why they sat throughout the summer as touchdown favorites over Tampa Bay in Week 1. At the last minute, money came in on the Bucs to drop the line closer to a field goal. Everybody won.

With a spread of -6.5, the betting market still rates the Vikings as an average football team. That's giving them too much credit. It also might be giving the Eagles too little.

Nick Sirianni acknowledged that he should have played his offensive stars in the preseason after a subpar effort in New England, but there's a chance that's the best defense the Eagles will see all season. The Vikings aren't that. With a quick turnaround, and even ignoring the record that the favorites have against the spread on Thursday night, the Eagles should be over -7 rather than under it. We're hoping for a win to close a teaser from Monday, and an outright win will see us advance in survivor contests, but laying the points with Philadelphia is also worth a look.

Pick: Eagles (-6.5)

'I don't want your money, I want your bookies' money'

In their Week 2 tilt last season, the Eagles swarmed Justin Jefferson. On 12 targets, his longest catch went for 11 yards. Even through a successful season in which Jefferson was the Offensive Player of the Year, the Vikings knew they needed another explosive option. Jordan Addison caught four balls for 61 yards last week, and he can be found lined at 42.5 receiving yards.

I don't want your Addison money, I want the Eagles' money. I'm backing the Eagles' defense to drape Jefferson again, as his yardage total is lined in the low 90s - the same neighborhood it's usually in despite a better opponent.

Pick: Justin Jefferson under 92.5 receiving yards (-115)

'Thank you sir, may I have another'

If you called a toll-free number looking for Dallas Goedert's stats in the box score against the Patriots, I assure you, he was on the field. He participated in his usual 90% of the snaps. Whether he was staying in to help block the Patriots' blitz or being overlooked in the passing game, getting Goedert involved will help get the Eagles' offense back on track after just 5.2 yards per pass attempt last week.

Goedert had his third-most receiving yards against the Vikings last season, but Minnesota will still be focused on stopping Hurts on the ground along with his pair of deadly receivers. That makes Goedert a good choice for high volume, especially near the goal line, and we won't call you asking for a commission after it wins.

Pick: Dallas Goedert anytime touchdown (+200)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.