Week 1 best over/under bets: Will Commanders pile it on the Cardinals?

Week 1 of the NFL season is here. Thursday Night Football kicked things off, and we now have a full slate Sunday. Seven hours of commercial-free football while sweating out bets, eating on the couch, and enjoying the sport we've been yearning for since February. After a long summer, we made it.

We've got you covered with a round-robin underdog parlay and teaser picks to lock in some Sunday tickets. Now, we'll break down our favorite total bets from this weekend's slate.

Week 1 totals are challenging. Everyone enters the season with hope, thinking their team's reinvented offense will top the league. Predicting matchups and specific unit improvements is much easier with a sample size as the season goes on than relying on last year's results, so it's wise to tread lightly.

Week 1 totals

Best bets

Panthers @ Falcons under 39.5 points

This game could get ugly. It's the second-lowest win total of the weekend, and for good reason. Both teams are starting inexperienced quarterbacks, which could lead to some lousy offense. The Panthers, in particular, are throwing Bryce Young into the fire for his debut. Even if Young eventually becomes the second coming of Peyton Manning, there are going to be bumps at the beginning of the ride.

The Panthers have a solid defense, which was a big reason why they won seven games last year. The jury is still out on second-year Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder, who only started in four games last year. He'll have a difficult time navigating the Panthers' defense.

This number opened at 43.5, and sharp bettors pounced on the under, which is why it fell four points. Even at 39.5 now, fading these quarterbacks and taking the under is still the play.

Chargers team total over 26.5 points

Dolphins at Chargers is one of the best games of the weekend as two Super Bowl contenders meet up in Week 1. Expect a ton of points in Los Angeles. The over/under of 51.5 is the highest total of the day. The game features two offensive-minded coaches - Mike McDaniel and Brandon Staley - and two prolific quarterbacks with a plethora of stars on the outside.

The Chargers are favored by three, and while I like the game to go over, I'll go with the Chargers team total instead. The Dolphins' defense has the potential to be elite this season, but it's do or die for Staley. The Chargers have missed the playoffs two of the three years Justin Herbert's been under center, which is unacceptable with a quarterback that gifted.

Herbert's weapons are as elite as ever this year with a healthy Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, rookie Quentin Johnston, and, of course, running back Austin Ekeler. The Dolphins' defense will have no answers for the playmakers all over the field.

This game will be played into the 30s in an intense fourth-quarter finish, but the better play is the Chargers over points.

Commanders team total over 23.5 points

The Commanders are playing the Cardinals - the worst team in the NFL - at home. For Washington, this is the extension of the preseason - that's how bad this Arizona squad is without Kyler Murray. The spread is at a touchdown in favor of Washington.

Sam Howell is still a mystery at quarterback, but he showed flashes of excellence throughout the preseason. He's also surrounded by weapons in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel - not to mention two young backs: Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson.

Howell's also working with new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, a respected offensive mind. That whole unit is going to pour it on Arizona in their opener.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formally known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.