NFL betting: Will home teams, unders dominate again in divisional round?
Wild Card Weekend is officially in the books, and we've got plenty to digest from an interesting - for lack of a better word - round of games.
To say the games delivered would be a lie. The wild-card slate was full of lopsided contests that started Saturday with the Texans' blowout of the Chargers and capped off Monday night with the Vikings' embarrassing effort against the Rams.
Home teams - including the Rams, who won at a neutral site - went 5-1 straight up and against the spread (ATS). The Commanders were the only road team to win and cover during their 23-20 victory over the Buccaneers. Not only did home teams win, but they dominated. In the five home victories, the average margin was 17.6 points.
To make matters worse from an entertainment standpoint, the blowout games were also low-scoring. The under hit in five of six games; only the Texans-Chargers tilt exceeded its low closing total of 42.5 points.
Let that serve as a reminder that playoff football isn't like the regular season. Defenses tend to step up in must-win situations and offenses can look dysfunctional when playoff pressure mounts.
With the divisional round next on deck, bettors must decide if home teams and unders will continue to win at a high rate.
The early-week spreads suggest we could be in for a repeat of the wild-card round. The Chiefs (-8) and Lions (-10) are favored by more than a touchdown over the Texans and Commanders, respectively. The Eagles are also 6-point favorites at home against the Rams.
Detroit opened as an 8.5-point favorite over Washington, the only road team to cover last week. However, bettors have shifted that line 1.5 points in two days and are all in on the Lions' Super Bowl chances. Detroit remains the Super Bowl favorite at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet at +275.
The Bills are the only home underdog of the week, with the Ravens laying one point in the marquee matchup of the divisional round. Buffalo hasn't been an underdog at home in 42 games - the last time was Week 17 in 2020.
If you parlay all of the home teams together on the moneyline - Chiefs (-550), Lions (-500), Eagles (-270), and Bills (+100) - the odds become +289, suggesting a 25.7% chance all four home teams advance to the conference championships.
The Commanders-Lions game has the highest total of the weekend - and potentially the entire playoffs - at 55.5. This game features two of the top five highest-scoring teams in the NFL with defenses that have given up a ton of points over the past handful of games.
The Ravens-Bills meeting also has shootout potential, with oddsmakers setting the total at 51.5. These teams met in Week 4 when Baltimore walked away with a 35-10 victory at home.
The divisional round begins at 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday when the reigning Super Bowl champs play host to the Texans.
Stay tuned for the betting previews of the AFC and NFC divisional rounds.