Pro Picks: Sticking with the preseason prediction of an Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl rematch

Familiar foes are facing off in the conference championship games in the NFL playoffs.

Patrick Mahomes and the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs take on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills for the fourth time in the past five postseasons.

The Chiefs have won all three playoff matchups, including the AFC championship game four years ago. The Bills ended Kansas City’s bid for a perfect season with a 30-21 victory in Week 11.

Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders visit Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC championship game.

The NFC East rivals split their season series, each winning at home.

The Chiefs and Commanders played their divisional games on Saturday so they’ve had an extra day of rest. Since 2004, the teams with an extra day off are 26-16 in the conference championship games, including 20-7 at home.

Pro Picks is sticking with its preseason prediction of an Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl rematch.

Line: Eagles minus 6

The Eagles are back here for the second time in three years and ninth time in franchise history. They’re 4-4, including 4-2 at home.

The Commanders are in the conference championship game for the first time in 33 years and seventh time in franchise history. Washington is 5-1 in the NFC title game and has won three Super Bowls.

The Eagles beat Washington 26-18 in a Thursday night game on Nov. 14. The Commanders rallied for a 36-33 victory on Dec. 22 in a game where Hurts sustained a concussion in the first quarter. The Eagles had a chance to seal a victory in that one but DeVonta Smith dropped a pass from Kenny Pickett on third down, setting the stage for Daniels to lead a comeback victory.

Daniels has thrown a TD pass in the final 30 seconds or overtime in five games this season. But no rookie quarterback has won a conference title game, going 0-5.

Barkley has 296 yards rushing and four TDs against Washington this season, including a 68-yard TD run in Philadelphia’s loss.

Hurts injured his knee last week in the snow against the Rams. If his mobility is limited, that’ll be a major advantage for Washington.

The Commanders lost right guard Sam Cosmi in their win over Detroit. They’ll have to find a way to contain Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter, who was a dominant force vs. Los Angeles.

The Eagles are 7-3 against the spread in their past 10 games while the Commanders are 5-5 ATS in that span.

EAGLES: 26-23

Line: Chiefs minus 2

These two teams have played some classic games in the postseason and regular season, too.

There was the back-and-forth in the final two minutes in the 2021 divisional round where Allen threw a TD pass to Gabe Davis with 13 seconds left only to watch Mahomes complete two passes for 44 yards to set up a tying field goal that forced overtime. The Chiefs won the coin toss, scored a touchdown and the Bills didn’t get the ball. That led the NFL to change its postseason overtime rules to ensure both teams get a possession.

There was Buffalo’s win in Week 14 in 2023 when an offside penalty on Kadarius Toney negated Toney’s TD off a lateral from Travis Kelce.

Allen’s 26-yard TD run with 2:17 left sealed the Bills’ win earlier this season in the only game Kansas City’s starters lost.

Allen is 4-1 against Mahomes in the regular season. But he’s still seeking his first win in the playoffs.

Mahomes has only lost to Tom Brady (twice) and Joe Burrow in the postseason, going 16-3. He is 7-0 straight up and ATS as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal.

The Bills were a home underdog last week when they beat the Ravens. Allen has never won consecutive games as an underdog in 15 tries.

The Chiefs are aiming to become the first team in NFL history to three-peat in the Super Bowl era. With Taylor Swift and maybe Caitlin Clark cheering them on, they’re tough to beat at Arrowhead Stadium.

CHIEFS: 27-26

___

Last week: Straight up: 3-1. Against spread: 3-0-1.

Playoffs: Straight up: 7-3. Against spread: 6-3-1.

Overall: Straight up: 199-83. Against spread: 150-127-5.

Best Bet: Straight up: 12-7. Against spread: 10-8-1

Upset Special: Straight up: 10-9. Against spread: 10-9.

___

Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

___

AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl