Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team
After making our picks for player props and extracurricular markets for the Big Game, it's time to predict who will win the Super Bowl.
Our two betting writers, Sam Oshtry and Eric Patterson, couldn't agree on who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy. So they went head-to-head, laying out the case for both the Eagles and the Chiefs. And since the point spread is down to Chiefs -1, we're tossing it away and making these picks straight-up.
Who are you siding with?
Case for Eagles
The only reasonable argument for the Chiefs is they have the NFL's best quarterback who's in contention as the greatest signal-caller ever. Granted, that's a good reason to pick the Chiefs as they attempt to become the first team in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls. Kansas City has won an NFL record 17 consecutive one-score games this season, which certainly requires some luck - and a quarterback as talented as Patrick Mahomes.
Eventually, though, someone has to dethrone the Chiefs, and this Eagles team is built for the task. Philadelphia has an edge at every position other than quarterback and kicker.
Two years ago, the Chiefs defeated the Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII. However, this Eagles team is much different - and better - than the 2022 squad. First, Philadelphia's run game is on another level thanks to free-agent acquisition Saquon Barkley, who runs behind an unstoppable and physically dominant offensive line.
The Eagles are a run-first club with Barkley in the backfield and Jalen Hurts under center, but their passing game has also produced when needed. Hurts has an elite wide receiver duo on the outside in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and he has Dallas Goedert at tight end.
Defenses rarely implement a two-high safety scheme against Philly because of its dangerous rushing attack, which opens up receivers. The Chiefs play primarily man-to-man coverage. Hurts, who threw for over 300 passing yards and had four total touchdowns in the last Super Bowl against K.C., should exploit the Chiefs' coverage through the air. Steve Spagnuolo is an accomplished and brilliant defensive coordinator, but Kansas City doesn't have the defensive personnel to stop the Eagles' offense.
Philadelphia's defense has also significantly improved since Super Bowl LVII - eight of its starters are new, including dominant defensive lineman Jalen Carter, linebacker Zack Baun, and rookie cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. The Eagles hold opponents to 18.3 points per game, the league's second-best mark. The Chiefs' offense, meanwhile, struggled against solid defensive units like those of the Broncos (16 points scored) and Texans (23 points scored in the divisional round).
Historically, teams that have won the turnover battle in the Super Bowl are 38-7. Neither offense has turned the ball over in the playoffs, but Philly's defense has 10 takeaways this postseason and was plus-11 in turnover margin in the regular season. Meanwhile, K.C.'s defense hasn't forced a turnover in the playoffs and only had a plus-6 turnover margin over the 2024 campaign.
Another trend to watch is that the team that ran for the most yards is 43-15 in the Big Game. The Eagles didn't establish their run game the last time these teams played, but that won't be the case Sunday. Philadelphia has outgained their opponents on the ground in 17 of the last 18 games its starters played.
Mahomes is remarkable and, if the Chiefs' offense is driving in a tight game as the clock winds down, Eagles fans should be worried. However, this Philly squad has the rushing attack, offensive weapons, and defense to dethrone Kansas City.
- Sam Oshtry
Case for Chiefs
I'll start by conceding that the Eagles have more talent on offense except at quarterback I'm also going to include tight ends, though. Barkley outclasses the duo of Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, and Brown and Smith are better than the large rotation of wideouts the Chiefs deploy. But, even at 35, Travis Kelce remains one of the best tight ends in football.
However, the differences between the rest of the personnel on both sides of the ball aren't drastic enough to be heavily considered when handicapping the game.
The Eagles' offensive line has been one of the best units in the game for a while. But the Chiefs roster two first-team All-Pros in Creed Humphrey and Joe Thuney, so you could argue Kansas City's is equally as strong.
Chris Jones, meanwhile, is the best defender in the game and is a big reason the Chiefs were fifth in pressure rate (26.1%) and sixth in hurry rate (9.0%) during the regular season. The Eagles were 28th and last in those two categories, respectively.
Kansas City's defense features George Karlaftis, Nick Bolton, and Trent McDuffie, all of whom have been to the Big Game before. All-Pro linebacker Baun and rookie corners Mitchell and DeJean will make their first Super Bowl appearances for Philadelphia. It's hard to overstate the importance of experience on the game's biggest stage.
And the Chiefs make up for whatever talent they may lack by trotting out the league's best quarterback. It's a movie we've seen before - Kansas City may not look like the better team on paper, but people seem to forget the magic of Mahomes, who's had the best first seven seasons of any signal-caller the NFL has ever seen.
On top of all that, Mahomes has Andy Reid on his sideline, so we have to give the Chiefs the coaching advantage in a game that - if closely contested - could come down to a decision made by the head coach.
It may sound simplistic, but sometimes backing an all-time great is the only play to make. Mahomes and the Chiefs will make history Sunday by becoming the first team to achieve a Super Bowl three-peat - whether you like it or not.
- Eric Patterson