Super Bowl over/under: Is there a good bet on the game's total?

The focus heading into the Super Bowl is always on - understandably - who will win.

It's more exciting to pick a team and cheer for it throughout the game. However, plenty of people don't have an opinion on who will win but might have a better guess about how the game will unfold. That's when betting on the total score can make sense.

The total for Super Bowl LIX is 48.5, down one point from the game's opening number. Still, 48.5 is higher than the average game totals throughout the season.

On the surface, that makes sense. The Eagles and Chiefs have prolific offenses that have shown they can score points throughout the playoffs. The Eagles put up 55 on the Commanders, and the Chiefs posted 32 on the Bills in their respective conference championship games. Those two outings could have influenced the Super Bowl's total by a couple of points.

But these two teams also feature strong defenses, and - as the old adage goes - defense wins championships. The Chiefs allowed the fourth fewest points during the regular season, and the Eagles allowed the second fewest.

During the 2024 campaign, Chiefs games averaged 41.8 points, and Eagles tilts averaged 44.9 points. Setting game totals is a more complicated calculation than simply taking each team's averages, but it highlights how high 48.5 points is relative to what these two teams did all season.

Additionally, five of the past six Super Bowls went under the total. These teams could also come out a bit tight and nervous with so much at stake - the Chiefs' attempt at three-peat history and the Eagles' pursuit of dethroning the champs.

Coincidentally, the only one among those six that went over was the Chiefs-Eagles game two years ago. However, the Eagles' defense has improved since then, and the Chiefs' offense has arguably taken a small step back.

The Eagles would also benefit from keeping this game lower-scoring. Their strengths are their run game and defense, and getting into a shootout against Patrick Mahomes is a bad idea. Philadelphia will likely have a run-heavy attack that will eat up a lot of clock in the first half and limit scoring opportunities for both sides.

This game seems to have a better chance at becoming a defensive struggle than an offensive shootout, making the under the side to play when betting on the total.

Pick: Under 48.5