Can anyone catch Ovechkin? Sizing up biggest threats to goals record

Nobody thought anyone could break Wayne Gretzky's all-time goals record but, against all odds, Alex Ovechkin did. How safe should Ovi feel with the record, though?

A handful of active players have outside chances of catching The Great 8. Of course, it will be no easy task, requiring remarkable production, health, longevity, and even a bit of luck.

It's important to remember this isn't just a race to 896, considering Ovechkin likely isn't done. He still has one more year on his contract, so assuming he honors that, the record could stand around 930 - and that's a modest estimate. If he plays a few more years, 1,000 is well within reach. If he goes full Jaromir Jagr and plays until his mid-40s, Ovechkin's goal total could be nearly impossible to catch.

Even with that in mind, we analyze the cases for some players with even the slightest hope of catching Ovechkin, ordered from most likely to least likely.

Auston Matthews

Age: 27
Career goals: 398

Why he could: Matthews has the best chance of any active player. Several numbers stack up favorably for the Toronto Maple Leafs captain. Matthews ranks fifth all time in goals per game (minimum 200 goals) at 0.64. Ovechkin is seventh at 0.60.

Through his age-27 season, Ovechkin potted 371 goals in 601 games for a per-game mark of 0.617. Matthews has suited up in 24 more games, in part because he debuted at 19, whereas Ovechkin had to wait until he was 20. Coincidentally, they share the same birthday: Sept. 17.

Matthews hasn't displayed the year-to-year consistency of Ovechkin, but he's shown his ceiling is much higher. While Ovi scored more than 56 goals only once - when he bagged a career-high 65 in 2007-08 - Matthews has already done so twice, scoring 69 a year ago and 60 in just 73 games in 2021-22. He's in the midst of a down year, but would anyone be surprised if he flirted with 70 again next year? Probably not.

Matthews scores in numerous ways. He's got a lethal wrister and his one-timer has improved in recent years. He's also great at tips, deflections, and using his 6-foot-3 frame to box out defenders in front of the net for rebounds.

Also working in Matthews' favor is the potential of playing alongside a superb playmaker in Mitch Marner for the majority of his career. That's a big "if" with Marner a pending unrestricted free agent, and Matthews due up in 2028, but it's possible.

Why he probably won't: Injuries. Matthews hasn't suffered any serious, career-threatening ailments, but he's been banged up enough to make it fair to wonder if he has the durability to get across the finish line. Ovechkin has missed only 75 games in 20 seasons. Matthews has already missed 71 in nine campaigns.

Leon Draisaitl

Age: 29
Career goals: 399

Why he could: It took Draisaitl a few years to blossom into a truly elite player, but since his age-23 campaign he's averaged 46 goals per season, and 51 per 82 games. If he can keep that up for a good chunk of his 30s, he has a chance. He already ranks 20th all time with 0.51 goals per game.

Draisaitl seems to keep getting better, too. He's arguably in the midst of his best season, leading the NHL with 52 goals - eight more than second place William Nylander and Tage Thompson.

If Connor McDavid, a 2026 UFA, ends up staying in Edmonton for the long haul, it would certainly help Draisaitl's odds. McDavid, after all, is an all-time great playmaker. The two have outstanding chemistry together, particularly on the power play. A full-time move to the wing alongside McDavid, which isn't out of the question at some point, would certainly help Draisaitl's scoring output into his 30s.

Why he probably won't: He might never recover from his slow start. Draisaitl didn't score 30 goals in a season until his age-23 campaign. He totaled only 75 goals through his first four seasons. Never say never, but that's probably too much catching up for him to do.

David Pastrnak

Age: 28
Career goals: 390

Why he could: Of all the players on this list, Pastrnak profiles closest to Ovechkin in terms of playing style. No, Pastrnak is not the relentless power forward Ovi was in his heyday, but the Bruins' leading scorer is a true winger, and a pure shooter. His one-timer from the left half wall on the power play is not quite Ovi-caliber, but it's in the next tier.

Pastrnak has already shown his ceiling is sky high with a 61-goal season in 2022-23. His floor is essentially 40 goals at this point. Obviously that won't get him close to the record, but mix in a few more seasons close to 60, and there's a chance. Pastrnak ranks 18th all time with 0.52 goals per game.

Why he probably won't: He doesn't have enough help. Pastrnak has essentially been a one-man offense for a poor Bruins team this season, and Boston boasts arguably the worst farm system in the league. Maybe that could change this offseason if the Bruins are able to draft someone with dynamic playmaking abilities, such as Michael Misa, but that's no sure thing. Pastrnak's prime years could be squandered by a subpar supporting cast.

Connor McDavid

Age: 28
Career goals: 361

Why he could: Never doubt the best player in the world, right? McDavid has proven he can score goals at an elite rate, as shown by his career-high 64 tallies in 2022-23. If McDavid committed to being more of a shooter, as he did with a career-high 352 shots during his lone Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy-winning season, he could have a chance at the record.

Why he probably won't: He's not selfish enough. McDavid is a pass-first player by nature. Since the start of 2023-24, he's averaged 34 goals and 264 shots per 82 games. The more time he spends alongside Draisaitl, the more passive he becomes, too. It would take a seismic shift in philosophy, which we're not anticipating.

Bedard, Celebrini, Michkov

Why they could: There's a lot of runway, which probably gives them a better chance than established veterans listed in our honorable mentions below. Macklin Celebrini, 18, Connor Bedard, 19, and Matvei Michkov, 20, are all just kids.

Bedard's elite goal-scoring ability from junior hasn't transferred to the pros, where he's been more of a playmaker through his first two seasons. But once he gets bigger and stronger, his lethal wrister could result in some 40-plus goal seasons in the near future.

Celebrini wasn't as hyped as Bedard entering the NHL, but he's greatly exceeded expectations in his rookie season, scoring 24 goals in 66 games. It's not as if he's shooting the lights out, either, as his 10.6% shooting percentage is right around league average. If the Sharks phenom can build on this season moving forward, look out.

Michkov came over from Russia earlier than expected, which certainly helps his case. He's flourished in his rookie season with 24 goals in 76 games. As a winger, he could theoretically have an easier time becoming a pure goal-scorer with fewer defensive responsibilities.

Why they probably won't: It's too much projecting. None of them have even scored 30 goals in a season, let alone the 40-plus per year it would take to catch Ovechkin. They have only 90 goals combined between the three of them. Let's pump the brakes a little bit.

Honorable mentions

• Sidney Crosby, 37, 623 career goals
• Nikita Kucherov, 31, 354 career goals
• Nathan MacKinnon, 29, 367 career goals
• Brayden Point, 29, 305 career goals
• Steven Stamkos, 35, 582 career goals