Ranking Juan Soto's suitors by desire and potential impact
It was just a year ago that the most sought-after free agent in MLB history, Shohei Ohtani, hit the open market, but another unicorn will be available when free agency begins Monday.
Juan Soto is nine days younger than Bryce Harper was when the Phillies star entered free agency following his age-25 season in 2018.
Harper was one of the most sought-after free agents in history due to his rare left-handed bat and relative youth. Similarly, Soto is about as young as a star player can be entering free agency. Only Alex Rodriguez, entering his age-25 season in 2001, was younger in entering the open market this century.
And in terms of production, only Rodriguez, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Andruw Jones produced more bWAR through their age-25 campaigns than Soto over the last 30 years.
Soto enjoys perfect market conditions this offseason. Many large-market clubs need his services, and none could probably use him more than the top-revenue team in the sport.
His decision will come down to two questions. Which teams are willing to meet a price tag exceeding $600 million? (Jon Heyman reports the Scott Boras client is seeking a $700-million deal, without deferrals, which would exceed Ohtani's record contract regarding real earnings power.) And among the teams that can realistically sign Soto, which need him the most to boost their playoff and World Series chances?
The following rankings attempt to balance need and plausibility in assessing where Soto might best fit:
No. 8: Blue Jays
Soto in Canada is likely a pipe dream. But after the Ohtani tease last winter, the fan base would welcome the sight of Soto stepping off a private jet at Pearson International Airport.
Blue Jays ownership was willing to come close to the dollar figure Ohtani reached with the Dodgers last winter. What that means is a bit unclear, as the inflation-adjusted dollar value of Ohtani's heavily deferred deal is far less than the $700-milllion guaranteed figure.
According to our analysis of payroll spending versus revenue, the Blue Jays are also one of the more generous teams, so how much flexibility they have isn't clear. Rogers Communications, which owns the Jays, is also completing a deal to buy out telecommunications rival Bell's shares of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment, the parent of Toronto's other major professional franchises.
But the Blue Jays are another large-market team that should be highly motivated to improve, at least in the near term.
The coming season is the final year the club has salary control over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. The Jays also have a quality rotation under contract, but it's a group that's not getting any younger.
Moreover, their pivot to trading bats for gloves over the last two offseasons hasn't worked, and they need more left-handed thump in their lineup. Toronto's 94 wRC+ from left-handed hitters ranked 23rd in the majors in 2024, and the club finished 20th in left-handed plate appearances.
Of course, it's also possible the Blue Jays are thinking more about a rebuild, making them less likely to commit to a long-term megadeal. But if any player could help the club make a big jump in the coming years, it's Soto.
No. 7: Nationals
A homecoming for Soto ought to be considered plausible as well as compelling.
While the Nationals aren't believed to be immediate contenders, adding Soto to a young core that includes James Wood, C.J. Abrams, and Dylan Crews could create a long-term dynamic lineup.
The Nationals have the lowest player payroll among all the Soto contenders considered here, meaning they can afford him.
They also have a history of working with Boras on megadeals for players such as Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.
While Soto would likely prefer to win right away, the final dollar figure will determine the winner for services.
No. 6: Dodgers
Could the rich become even richer?
The World Series champions have been linked to interest in Soto, which would seem unfair to the rest of the sport.
The Dodgers have less urgency to sign another superstar. Still, adding Soto to a lineup led by Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman could set them up for a run of multiple World Series titles, which no team has accomplished since the 1998-2000 Yankees.
It's unclear how willing the Dodgers would be to further stretch their luxury-tax bill. But they have so many deferred dollars in contracts issued to star players that they could afford to sign Soto and become an overwhelming dynamo of a team.
No. 5: Cubs
Behind the Yankees and Red Sox, the Cubs are the third-ranked team in terms of surplus dollars enjoyed by ownership when subtracting total player costs from revenue.
Even with Cody Bellinger exercising his 2025 player option, the Cubs could use another elite bat.
The Cubs slugged just .396 from the left side of the plate last season. And even with Bellinger returning, there's still plenty of reason to pursue Soto.
Adding such a star to a Central Division team could swing playoff probabilities more than any other landing spot. The Cubs' largest contract in club history is the $184-million guarantee to Jason Heyward in 2015, who was then a young, left-handed-hitting free agent entering his age-26 season.
No. 4: Red Sox
Red Sox Nation is frustrated with ownership, and for good reason. According to our analysis of revenues minus total team payroll, only the Yankees ($344 million) have a greater surplus of dollars than the $328 million by the Red Sox.
Boston projects, at the moment, to have just the 16th-ranked Opening Day payroll, according to Spotrac.
Stars are needed not just to contend but to excel in October. The Red Sox know this well, as the Mookie Betts trade continues to haunt them.
Boston is reportedly going to "check in" on Soto, per Heyman, but it ought to be serious about courting him. Soto would transform a good lineup (11th in wRC+ at 104) with fixtures like Rafael Devers and Jaren Duran and an emerging star in Wilyer Abreu into an elite one.
Also, only Coors Field has ranked as a better park for left-handed hitters than Fenway over the last three seasons. Soto loves to use the entire field, making Fenway a great fit.
One other plus? For MLB, Soto in Boston would re-ignite the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry.
No. 3 Giants
The dream for the Giants is to have Soto smashing balls into McCovey Cove for the next decade.
The Giants have aggressively bid for top-of-the-market stars in recent seasons but keep coming up short. For instance, just two offseasons ago, the Giants offered Aaron Judge $360 million, but the Yankees matched it, and Judge elected to remain in New York.
The Giants are desperate for star power to compete with their powerful division rival in Los Angeles.
In some ways, they're the most desperate team on this list. San Francisco hasn't won a playoff round since 2014 and has reached the playoffs just twice in the last decade.
The Giants are 761-757 since 2015. They are average. They're tired of being average.
Perhaps the new president of baseball operations, Buster Posey, can make a better pitch to Soto than the previous leadership group.
The Giants do have a history of signing an elite left-handed slugger to a record-setting contract. They did just that with Barry Bonds in 1993. That proved to be an incredibly valuable signing.
No. 2: Mets
No owner is willing to spend like the Mets' Steve Cohen.
According to our Scrooge Index, Cohen is a remarkable outlier among owners - the only one willing to exceed his 2023 revenues with 2024 player payroll and tax payments.
Cohen is the rare owner willing to operate at a loss, which makes the Mets the ultimate wild card. He's the wealthiest owner in baseball, boasting a net worth approaching $20 billion.
Not only would signing Soto away from the Yankees generate great back-page interest in New York, but Soto could also swing the balance in the NL East, the most competitive division in baseball last year. The Mets finished tied with the Braves and six games behind the Phillies.
Expect the Mets to be among the finalists for Soto.
No. 1: Yankees
You could argue that no team needs Soto more than the Yankees. After all, he was integral to New York reaching the World Series, highlighted by his game-winning three-run homer in the ALCS that sent the club to the title round.
There's also an important roster-building context. Aaron Judge is entering his age-33 season, Gerrit Cole is 34, Giancarlo Stanton will be 35, and Carlos Rodon is 32. Rapid decline could happen to members of that core sooner rather than later.
The Yankees should have an advantage not just as an incumbent that captured the AL pennant, but they have the most revenue in the sport.
That means, in theory, no one can outbid the Yankees, and few clubs should be as motivated to sign Soto.
Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.