Play MLB draft 'would you rather'
You know who has a great track record in the MLB draft? Me, with the benefit of hindsight. That’s the way the draft works. It’s easy to pick the best player when you clearly know who happens to be the best player.
Not always, however. There are still some tough questions and ugly choices to make when looking back at previous drafts. Looking back over the last decade (or so), pull on your Scouting Director hat and dive into these fun MLB draft hypotheticals!
2004 - Second round studs
Dustin Pedroia is a great player and has been for a very long time. He was a key piece of two World Champs and claimed an AL MVP in 2008 at the tender age of 24.
Now, he’s a bit more injury prone and doesn't hit for much (read: any) power but he’s still a fine second baseman and he turns in good at bats almost every time up.
Hunter Pence doesn’t have the same kind of hardware but he also has a World Series ring all his own. He’s still a very good outfielder and a few months younger than Pedroia. He takes care of his body to a ludicrous degree and is never, ever hurt.
The Astros took Pence one pick ahead of Pedroia. Would you do anything differently? Pedroia will always be a Red Sock but, from this point forward, seems like Pence is the guy you’d want.
2005 - No wrong answers
There is a great book waiting to be written about the 2005 draft, specifically the first round. It is absolutely loaded with talent as some of the best players in baseball over the past decade were selected this year.
It is tough to pick one player out and say “he’s the one that got away.” Would you rather take Troy Tulowitzki, the standout shortstop with checkered injury past. Andrew McCutchen, who started more slowly than some of the other stars in the draft. What about Ryan Braun? Alex Gordon? Ryan Zimmerman? Justin Upton? So much talent, there’s no wrong answer*.
* - the wrong answer is actually Jeff Clement.
2006 - Now or forever?
If you had to do it all over again, would you take the college pitcher with the unconventional windup who ended up with two Cy Youngs and two World Series rings?
Or would you rather pick the pitcher now regarded as the best in the game, the younger player with still so much ahead of him?
Remember - flags fly forever.
2007 - Conversion excursion
Two great players were taken in the middle of Day One of the 2007 draft. One player was a college catcher who is now a third baseman and also one of the best players in baseball.
The other was a high school first baseman and all-around athlete with scholarship options in football and basketball in addition to baseball. He’s now an outfielder and one of the best players in baseball.
Jump in your time machine. You have the 48th pick in the draft. Do you select Josh Donaldson, as the Oakland A’s did back then. Or do you reach for raw high schooler Mike “Giancarlo Michael-Cruz” Stanton?
2008 - Quality versus quantity
Here is your (false) dilemma - you can have the fifth pick in the draft, Buster Posey of the San Francisco Giants, or you can have the entire rest of the first round.
In taking the field, you get some nice role players, a beguiling talent in Brett Lawrie, a proven slugger in Pedro Alvarez, Andrew Cashner, some nice relievers, hell I’ll even throw in Gerrit Cole (drafted by the Yankees but didn’t sign and went off to school.)
You can have all that or you can have the 2012 NL MVP, the 2010 rookie of the year, a winner of two rings and arguably the best all-around catcher in the game.
2009 - Choose your own adventure
You are a baseball general manager. You are trying to make your baseball team as good as you possibly can. Not just because it’s your job but because baseball is your life. It always has been and it always will be. You don’t know any other way to live.
You can have Mike Trout, taken 25th overall in the 2009 draft, or you can live forever. Immortality. Immune to all diseases and the ravages of age. You can add Mike Trout or you can live to see the heat death of the universe. Choose wisely.
2010 - The odds
Odds are, Bryce Harper is going to have quite a formidable big league career. He’s talented and driven and just seems like he wants to play the game and play it well.
Those odds are a little longer now that he’s got some time in the big leagues. He’s still so young but injury and personality clashes with his coaching staff take some of the lustre of his future.
Odds are, Chris Sale is going to get hurt. The White Sox somehow keep him healthy and upright long enough to become the best pitcher in the American League. He’s so much better than most teams realized in 2010, when he came out of an otherwise unknown school all elbows and angles.
Do you like the odds of Bryce Harper becoming what we all think he can or do you like the odds of Chris Sale breaking down sooner rather than later. Play the odds, redraft this first round.
2011 - Look to the future, not-so-distant and otherwise
With only a handful of 2011 draftees reaching the big league level, there isn’t much to go on. If they did this draft again, Jose Fernandez would not be the 14th player selected, he would be first.
Or would he? There are some very exciting names among the players yet to reach the highest level. Players who only improved their stock with strong performances as professionals. Does the promise of Francisco Lindor do more for you than Sonny Gray’s legit output as a big league starter? Blake Swihart is racing up the Red Sox crowded catching depth chart. Does that potential entice you more than the glimpses of competence provided by C.J. Cron or Kolton Wong?
It is simply too soon to spend too much time crying over mostly unspilled milk. There will be plenty of time to second guess and third guess and point fingers over those drafts in recent years.