Vikings' starting QB odds: J.J. McCarthy or Sam Darnold?
After previewing the Giants' and Steelers' quarterback battles, let's dive into the Vikings' dilemma. Kirk Cousins' free-agency departure after six seasons with Minnesota has led to a transition phase.
The Vikings signed Sam Darnold and drafted J.J. McCarthy 10th overall this offseason. After a disappointing 7-10 campaign in which Cousins only played eight games before suffering a season-ending Achilles injury, Minnesota hopes its fresh faces can help improve its standing in a deep NFC North.
With training camp approaching, it's unclear who will start Week 1: the national championship-winning rookie, or the six-year vet? Oddsmakers believe Darnold will get the first crack at leading the Vikings' offense, giving him a 76% chance of starting Week 1.
Vikings starting QB odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | -330 |
| J.J. McCarthy | +240 |
McCarthy will get his shot. An organization doesn't draft a quarterback in the top 10 to let him ride the bench forever. The question is if McCarthy's chance will come during the season opener or down the line.
It's not uncommon to sit a first-round quarterback and develop him from the sidelines. Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Jordan Love sat for at least a season before they took over the reins. Rodgers and Mahomes became Hall of Fame quarterbacks, while Love is beginning a potentially illustrious career.
Of course, those aren't exactly fair comparisons for McCarthy. Rodgers learned from Brett Favre, while Love had Rodgers as a guide. Mahomes studied perennial playoff quarterback Alex Smith.
McCarthy's schooling would come from Darnold, who isn't a distinguished professor in NFL quarterbacking. Darnold has mostly served as a backup or fringe starter as he's bounced around the league. The 2018 third overall pick most recently played for the Super Bowl runner-up 49ers, where he backed up Brock Purdy and only started in a meaningless regular-season finale.
Darnold is 21-35 as a starter, with the bulk of those outings coming during his first three years in the NFL with the Jets. At best, he's an average starter with more weaknesses than strengths who's never established himself as a winning quarterback. Maybe his season with the 49ers and offensive guru Kyle Shanahan will lead to a mid-career renaissance. The Vikings are prepared to find out.
The job is reportedly Darnold's to lose when training camp opens July 27. A quarterback battle should ensue at camp without a starter officially named.
McCarthy led Michigan to a national title, but the Wolverines implemented a run-heavy attack. He had limited chances to showcase his arm talent relative to his fellow quarterback draftees. Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell runs a pass-heavy scheme, so McCarthy might require some extra development to adjust.
Minnesota sees Darnold as a bridge quarterback between the Cousins era and the McCarthy one. The former Jet is serviceable enough to keep Minnesota competitive with a hoist of playmakers around him.
ESPN ranked the Vikings' collection of weapons - wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends - as the NFL's fifth-best group. Whoever's under center for Minnesota will have perhaps the NFL's most reliable receiver in Justin Jefferson hauling in passes.
Many rookie quarterbacks have been thrust into starting positions in Week 1, learned from initial failures, and eventually developed into stars. But many underdeveloped quarterbacks never recovered from poor early-career performances in bad situations.
It's a risky decision that the Vikings must get right for the future of their franchise. Minnesota won't throw McCarthy into the fire if he's not ready.
Assuming Darnold claims the job, he'll have the chance to keep his spot by helping the Vikings win games. If he's performing poorly, though, McCarthy will surely take over at some point during the season.
Minnesota opens its season on the road against the Giants but then has a gauntlet of opponents looming. The Vikings play the 49ers, Texans, Packers, and Jets before their Week 6 bye.
McCarthy could take over as the starter following the bye if Minnesota's collapsing. For now, oddsmakers expect Darnold to win the competition and start Week 1.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.