Predicting where the NFL's top offensive free agents will sign
Guessing the landing spots and contract terms for the NFL's top offensive free agents in 2022.
Offense | Defense
Terron Armstead, LT
Age: 30
2021 stats: 8 starts, 1 sack allowed
Potential suitors: Saints, Dolphins, Jaguars, Bengals
Mike McDaniel was in San Francisco when the 49ers backed up the Brinks truck for Trent Williams, and it's safe to say they had no regrets about paying up for an All-Pro left tackle. The offensive line is a major need for Miami, and McDaniel's team just so happens to have as much salary cap space as anyone, so it's not like they'd be limited to just one marquee signing. Armstead could be one of several splash moves for the Dolphins.
๐ฎ Prediction: Dolphins on a 4-year, $96M contract ($51M guaranteed)
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
Age: 24
2021 stats: 97 catches, 831 yards, 9 TDs
Potential suitors: Steelers, Chiefs, Raiders, Jets, Ravens
Smith-Schuster surprisingly settled for a one-year deal to return to the Steelers last offseason, and it didn't quite work out as planned. He remains a highly intriguing free agent at just 24 years old, but his best bet may be another one-year deal after missing all but five games last season. Could that open the door for an offensive juggernaut that was rumored to be in the mix for him this time last year? There may not be a better way to re-establish your value than lighting it up with the Kansas City offense, and JuJu would be a perfect complement to Tyreek Hill.
๐ฎ Prediction: Chiefs on a 1-year, $11M contract ($11M guaranteed)
Allen Robinson, WR
Age: 28
2021 stats: 38 catches, 410 yards, 1 TD
Potential suitors: Patriots, Raiders, Browns, Eagles, Jaguars
Robinson is a fascinating free agent. One of the NFL's most underrated receivers, he's ultimately been weighed down by some brutal quarterback play over the years. His value could be difficult to gauge coming off a 410-yard season in Chicago, but Chris Godwin and Mike Williams not hitting the market only creates more competition for Robinson. The Browns should be the most aggressive here as they desperately need to overhaul the receiver group on an otherwise solid roster.
๐ฎ Prediction: Browns on a 4-year, $66M contract ($36M guaranteed)
Brandon Scherff, G
Age: 30
2021 stats: 11 starts, 0 sacks allowed
Potential suitors: Commanders, Bengals, Dolphins, Jaguars, Panthers
Scherff heads to free agency after back-to-back franchise tags in Washington. The five-time Pro Bowler will have a strong market, but one fit in particular stands out above the rest. All throughout a Cinderella run to the Super Bowl, the entire football world got to see just how badly the Bengals need help on the offensive line. It's not exactly their style to pay up for free agents, but what choice do they have? They've got the cap space necessary to make a few big moves, and at least one of them has to prioritize protecting Joe Burrow.
๐ฎ Prediction: Bengals on a 5-year, $85M contract ($40M guaranteed)
Odell Beckham Jr., WR
Age: 29
2021 stats: 44 catches, 537 yards, 5 TDs
Potential suitors: Rams
Beckham's fantastic stretch run with the Rams proved once and for all that he was, contrary to popular narratives, not the problem in Cleveland. The superstar wideout is still every bit as good as he was during his rise to prominence with the Giants, and until he tore his ACL in the Super Bowl, he was primed to cash in as a free agent. The injury complicates matters, as his recovery could extend deep into the 2022 season. A strong one-year deal to stay in L.A. probably makes the most sense.
๐ฎ Prediction: Rams on a 1-year, $12M contract ($12M guaranteed)
Ryan Jensen, C
Age: 30
2021 stats: 17 starts, 2 sacks allowed
Potential suitors: Buccaneers, Bengals, Steelers, Jets
Jensen figures to be a marquee free agent after establishing himself as a key cog on a strong Tampa Bay offensive line. While the Bucs would surely love to have him back, that may not be so easy with their salary cap issues. Could that open the door for a certain AFC club that needs offensive line help? The Steelers finally have some money to spend in free agency and they'd be wise to get aggressive.
๐ฎ Prediction: Steelers on a 4-year, $56M contract ($32M guaranteed)
James Daniels, G
Age: 24
2021 stats: 17 starts, 3 sacks allowed
Potential suitors: Bears, Bengals, Raiders, Jaguars, Steelers, Commanders
A versatile interior lineman who's still younger than most free agents, Daniels will be a hot commodity when he hits the market. There are several teams that could use an upgrade on the offensive line, but some are more desperate than others. The Commanders have big shoes to fill with Scherff likely on the way out, and signing the younger Daniels at a far lower price point would be a strong move. With former Bears offensive line coach Juan Castillo now on the staff coaching tight ends, there's also a connection here.
๐ฎ Prediction: Commanders on a 4-year, $48M contract ($25M guaranteed)
Jameis Winston, QB
Age: 28
2021 stats (7 games): 1,170 passing yards, 14 TDs, 3 INTs
Potential suitors: Saints, Buccaneers
The Saints have enough work to do just to get back to the salary cap, let alone add players. So while they may prefer to make an upgrade at quarterback, that just may not be possible. Winston, who's poised for another one-year deal after coming off a season-ending knee injury, presents an opportunity for both sides to reunite before reassessing next year.
๐ฎ Prediction: Saints on a 1-year, $8.5M contract ($8.5M guaranteed)
DJ Chark, WR
Age: 25
2021 stats (4 games): 7 catches, 154 yards, 2 TDs
Potential suitors: Jaguars, Bears, Colts, Chargers, Browns
Chark is the kind of free agent whose impending payday will likely reflect the potential of what's to come as opposed to his current value. He's shown flashes, highlighted by a 1,008-yard, 8-touchdown season in 2019. However, he took a step back the following year and missed all but four games in 2021, making this a difficult time to hit the market. Still, there will be teams willing to bet on the upside. That size-speed combination would look particularly nice opposite Darnell Mooney as Allen Robinson's replacement in Chicago.
๐ฎ Prediction: Bears on a 5-year, $67.5M contract ($29M guaranteed)
Cordarrelle Patterson, RB
Age: 30
2021 stats: 618 rushing yards, 548 receiving yards, 11 total TDs
Potential suitors: Falcons
Finally afforded the opportunity to play the position he should have been playing all along, Patterson was a breakout star in 2021. Imagine that! Unfortunately, it's a little late in his career for him to truly cash in, but he should be able to get himself a nice deal on the open market. The Falcons have so few playmakers they'd be wise to keep him around.
๐ฎ Prediction: Falcons on a 3-year, $27M contract ($20M guaranteed)
Leonard Fournette, RB
Age: 27
2021 stats: 812 rushing yards, 454 receiving yards, 10 total TDs
Potential suitors: Buccaneers, Texans, Dolphins, Bills, Jets
Fournette's two-year stint in Tampa Bay, highlighted by a productive Super Bowl run at the end of the 2020 season, did well to re-establish his value. Starting running back jobs are limited, though, so there will be limited fits around the league. Assuming the Bucs prioritize other free agents with their cap space, Fournette could find a solid deal with a team like the Texans.
๐ฎ Prediction: Texans on a 2-year, $15M contract ($10M guaranteed)
Mitchell Trubisky, QB
Age: 27
2021: Served as Josh Allen's backup in Buffalo
Potential suitors: Steelers, Broncos, Colts, Giants, Panthers, Commanders
Trubisky is a hot name on the quarterback market. You read that right. But who's to say a year on the bench in Buffalo, learning behind a supremely talented dual-threat quarterback, didn't do some good for his development? One person in particular, who just so happens to be the new head coach of the Giants, would know better than anyone. Brian Daboll will have a clear vision of how to build around Trubisky after working with him as the offensive coordinator in Buffalo. Whether he's brought in as competition for Daniel Jones or as an outright replacement, this would be a smart gamble for the Giants.
๐ฎ Prediction: Giants on a 1-year, $12M contract with incentives
Michael Gallup, WR
Age: 26
2021 stats (9 games): 35 catches, 445 yards, 2 TDs
Potential suitors: Cowboys, Browns, Colts, Patriots, Bears
The Cowboys wouldn't be moving on from Amari Cooper if they weren't bringing back Gallup, right? Letting him get to free agency is a bit of a risk, but it's still tough to imagine Dallas letting anyone swoop in to steal him away at this point. The Cowboys know Gallup better than anyone, and will probably sign him to the multi-year deal he wants coming off his late-season ACL injury.
๐ฎ Prediction: Cowboys on a 3-year, $42M contract ($20M guaranteed)
Rob Gronkowski, TE
Age: 32
2021 stats: 55 catches, 802 yards, 6 TDs
Potential suitors: Buccaneers, Bills, Bengals
Gronkowski really has no reason to return to the Bucs after Tom Brady's retirement. He could just opt to walk away himself, but why not play one last season at home? Buffalo is reportedly interested in adding the western New York native to its high-powered offense, and it's safe to assume Gronk would fit in with Bills Mafia. It's just perfect.
๐ฎ Prediction: Bills on a 1-year, $10M contract ($10M guaranteed)
Marcus Mariota, QB
Age: 28
2021: Served as Derek Carr's backup in Las Vegas
Potential suitors: Colts, Seahawks, Steelers
Mariota will be a free agent to watch this offseason. His playing time has been limited in a backup role for the past two years, so it'd be a short-term gamble if he were to be signed as a starter. However, his athleticism certainly gives him some appealing upside. A one-year deal with the Seahawks, following the trade of Russell Wilson, may be the most logical opportunity for the Hawaiian, who could prefer staying out west over potential fits with the Colts and Steelers.
๐ฎ Prediction: Seahawks on a 1-year, $8M contract with incentives